Opportunistic timing and manipulation in Australian Federal Elections

Lesmono, D., Tonkes, E. and Burrage, K. (2009) Opportunistic timing and manipulation in Australian Federal Elections. European Journal of Operational Research, 192 2: 677-691. doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2007.09.046


Author Lesmono, D.
Tonkes, E.
Burrage, K.
Title Opportunistic timing and manipulation in Australian Federal Elections
Journal name European Journal of Operational Research   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0377-2217
Publication date 2009-01-16
Year available 2007
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1016/j.ejor.2007.09.046
Open Access Status
Volume 192
Issue 2
Start page 677
End page 691
Total pages 15
Editor R. Slowinski
Place of publication Amsterdam, Netherlands
Publisher Elsevier Science
Language eng
Subject C1
970101 Expanding Knowledge in the Mathematical Sciences
010406 Stochastic Analysis and Modelling
Abstract In many parliamentary systems, election timing is an important decision made by governments in order to maximize their expected remaining life in power. Governments can also introduce policy or economic actions to enhance their popular standing and thus their chance of being re-elected. On the other hand, an oppositions’ natural objective is to gain power, and they will also apply controls through their own policies to reduce the governments’ chance of being re-elected. In this paper we employ a dynamic programming approach to determine the optimal timing for governments and oppositions to best utilize their limited resources. At each decision branch, the optimal control is interpreted as a Nash–Cournot equilibrium of a zero-sum political game which, in certain states, admits mixed strategy solutions. We perform a case study on the Australian Federal Election for House of Representatives.
Keyword OR in government
Dynamic programming
Game theory
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status UQ

 
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Created: Thu, 30 Jul 2009, 01:28:40 EST by Marie Grove on behalf of School of Mathematics & Physics