Methods to assess performance of models estimating risk of death in intensive care patients: a review

Cook, D. A. (2006) Methods to assess performance of models estimating risk of death in intensive care patients: a review. Anaesthesia and Intensive Care, 34 2: 164-175.


Author Cook, D. A.
Title Methods to assess performance of models estimating risk of death in intensive care patients: a review
Journal name Anaesthesia and Intensive Care   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0310-057X
Publication date 2006-01-01
Sub-type Critical review of research, literature review, critical commentary
Open Access Status Not yet assessed
Volume 34
Issue 2
Start page 164
End page 175
Total pages 12
Place of publication Melbourne
Publisher Australian Association of Anaesthetists
Language eng
Subject CX
Abstract Models that estimate the probability of death of intensive care unit patients can be used to stratify patients according to the severity of their condition and to control for casemix and severity of illness. These models have been used for risk adjustment in quality monitoring, administration, management and research and as an aid to clinical decision making. Models such as the Mortality Prediction Model family, SAPS II, APACHE II, APACHE III and the organ system failure models provide estimates of the probability of in-hospital death of ICU patients. This review examines methods to assess the performance of these models. The key attributes of a model are discrimination (the accuracy of the ranking in order of probability of death) and calibration (the extent to which the model's prediction of probability of death reflects the true risk of death). These attributes should be assessed in existing models that predict the probability of patient mortality, and in any subsequent model that is developed for the purposes of estimating these probabilities. The literature contains a range of approaches for assessment which are reviewed and a survey of the methodologies used in studies of intensive care mortality models is presented. The systematic approach used by Standards for Reporting Diagnostic Accuracy provides a framework to incorporate these theoretical considerations of model assessment and recommendations are made for evaluation and presentation of the performance of models that estimate the probability of death of intensive care patients. (author abstract)
Q-Index Code CX

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Critical review of research, literature review, critical commentary
Collections: Excellence in Research Australia (ERA) - Collection
School of Medicine Publications
 
Versions
Version Filter Type
Citation counts: TR Web of Science Citation Count  Cited 11 times in Thomson Reuters Web of Science Article | Citations
Scopus Citation Count Cited 11 times in Scopus Article | Citations
Google Scholar Search Google Scholar
Created: Wed, 01 Apr 2009, 02:12:49 EST by Sophie Jordan on behalf of Anaesthesiology and Critical Care - PAH