Trend detection in source-sink systems: when should sink habitats be monitored?

Jonzen, Niclas, Rhodes, Jonathan R. and Possingham, Hugh P. (2005) Trend detection in source-sink systems: when should sink habitats be monitored?. Ecological Applications, 15 1: 326-334. doi:10.1890/03-5168

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Author Jonzen, Niclas
Rhodes, Jonathan R.
Possingham, Hugh P.
Title Trend detection in source-sink systems: when should sink habitats be monitored?
Journal name Ecological Applications   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1051-0761
Publication date 2005-01-01
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1890/03-5168
Open Access Status File (Publisher version)
Volume 15
Issue 1
Start page 326
End page 334
Total pages 9
Place of publication Washington, DC, United States
Publisher Ecological Society of America
Collection year 2005
Language eng
Abstract We determine the power of population monitoring in source or sink habitat to detect declining reproductive success in source habitat using a stochastic population model. The relative power to detect a trend in the source by monitoring either the source or the sink varies with life history parameters, environmental stochasticity, and observation uncertainty. The power to detect a decline monitoring either source or sink habitat is maximized when the reproductive surplus in the source is low. The power to detect a decline by monitoring the sink increases with increasing reproductive deficit in the sink. If environmental stochasticity in the source increases, the power in the sink goes down due to a lower signal-to-noise ratio. However, the power in the sink increases if environmental stochasticity is increased further, because increasing stochasticity reduces the geometric mean growth rate in the source. Intriguingly, it is often most efficient to monitor the sink even though the actual reproductive decline occurs in the source. If reproductive success is declining in both habitats, censusing the sink will always have higher power. However, the probability of Type 1 error is always higher in the sink. Our results clearly have implications for optimal population monitoring in source-sink landscapes.
Keyword environmental stochasticity
habitat selection
life history parameters
observation uncertainty
population monitoring
population trend
reproductive success
source-sink dynamics
statistical power
Q-Index Code C1
Additional Notes Citation: Jonzen, Niclas and Rhodes, Jonathan R. and Possingham, Hugh P. (2005) Trend Detection in Source-Sink Systems: When Should Sink Habitats be Monitored?. Ecological Applications 15(1):326-334. Copyright 2005 by the Ecological Society of America.

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Created: Tue, 29 Nov 2005, 10:00:00 EST by Jonathan Rhodes on behalf of School of Mathematics & Physics