Unplanned land clearing of Colombian rainforests: Spreading like disease?

Etter, Andres, McAlpine, Clive, Phinn, Stuart, Pullar, David and Possingham, Hugh (2006) Unplanned land clearing of Colombian rainforests: Spreading like disease?. Landscape and Urban Planning, 77 3: 240-254. doi:10.1016/j.landurbplan.2005.03.002

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Author Etter, Andres
McAlpine, Clive
Phinn, Stuart
Pullar, David
Possingham, Hugh
Title Unplanned land clearing of Colombian rainforests: Spreading like disease?
Journal name Landscape and Urban Planning   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0169-2046
Publication date 2006-08-30
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2005.03.002
Volume 77
Issue 3
Start page 240
End page 254
Total pages 15
Editor J. E. Rodiek
Place of publication Amsterdam, Netherlands
Publisher Elsevier Science
Collection year 2006
Language eng
Subject C1
270704 Landscape Ecology
770703 Living resources (flora and fauna)
090903 Geospatial Information Systems
090905 Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing
Abstract Deforestation often occurs as temporal waves and in localized fronts termed 'deforestation hotspots' driven by economic pulses and population pressure. Of particular concern for conservation planning are 'biodiversity hotspots' where high concentrations of endemic species undergo rapid loss and fragmentation of habitat. We investigate the deforestation process in Caqueta, a biodiversity hotspot and major colonization front of the Colombian Amazon using multi-temporal satellite imagery of the periods 1989-1996-1999-2002. The probabilities of deforestation and regeneration were modeled against soil fertility, accessibility and neighborhood terms, using logistic regression analysis. Deforestation and regeneration patterns and rates were highly variable across the colonization front. The regional average annual deforestation rate was 2.6%, but varied locally between -1.8% (regeneration) and 5.3%, with maximum rates in landscapes with 40-60% forest cover and highest edge densities, showing an analogous pattern to the spread of disease. Soil fertility and forest and secondary vegetation neighbors showed positive and significant relationships with the probability of deforestation. For forest regeneration, soil fertility had a significant negative effect while the other parameters were marginally significant. The logistic regression models across all periods showed a high level of discrimination power for both deforestation and forest regeneration, with ROC values > 0.80. We document the effect of policies and institutional changes on the land clearing process, such as the failed peace process between government and guerillas in 1999-2002, which redirected the spread of deforestation and increased forest regeneration. The implications for conservation in biologically rich areas, such as Caqueta are discussed. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.
Keyword Ecology
Geography, Physical
Environmental studies
Geography
Urban studies
Tropical deforestation
Colonization
Multiple scales
Biodiversity hotspots
Colombia
Costa-rica
Cover change
Landscape
Amazon
Accessibility
Conservation
Biodiversity
Priorities
Patterns
Q-Index Code C1
Additional Notes Available online 25 May 2005

 
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Created: Wed, 15 Aug 2007, 10:26:24 EST