A Bayesian approach for population pharmacokinetic modelling of sirolimus

Dansirikul, Chantaratsamon, Morris, Raymond G., Tett, Susan E. and Duffull, Stephen B. (2006) A Bayesian approach for population pharmacokinetic modelling of sirolimus. British Journal of Clinical Pharmacology, 62 4: 420-434. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2125.2005.02533.x

Author Dansirikul, Chantaratsamon
Morris, Raymond G.
Tett, Susan E.
Duffull, Stephen B.
Title A Bayesian approach for population pharmacokinetic modelling of sirolimus
Journal name British Journal of Clinical Pharmacology   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0306-5251
Publication date 2006
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1111/j.1365-2125.2005.02533.x
Volume 62
Issue 4
Start page 420
End page 434
Total pages 15
Editor E. J. Begg
J. M. Ritter
M. S. Lennard
Place of publication Oxford
Publisher Blackwell Publishing
Collection year 2006
Language eng
Subject C1
320503 Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics
730199 Clinical health not specific to particular organs, diseases and conditions
Formatted abstract

To explore a Bayesian approach for the pharmacokinetic analysis of sirolimus concentration data arising from therapeutic drug monitoring (poorly informative concentration-time point design), and to explore possible covariate relationships for sirolimus pharmacokinetics.


Sirolimus concentration-time data were available as part of routine clinical care from 25 kidney transplant recipients. Most samples were taken at or near the trough time point at steady state. The data were analyzed using a fully conditional Bayesian approach with PKBUGS (v 1.1)/WinBUGS (v 1.3). Features of the data included noncompliance and missing concentration measurements below the limit of sensitivity of the assay. Informative priors were used.


A two-compartment model with proportional residual error provided the best fit to the data (consisting of 315 sirolimus concentration-time points). The typical value for the apparent clearance (CL/F ) was 12.5 l h−1 at the median age of 44 years. Apparent CL was found to be inversely related to age with a posterior probability of a clinically significant effect of 0.734.


A population pharmacokinetic model was developed for sirolimus using a novel approach. Bayesian modelling with informative priors allowed interpretation of a significant covariate relationship, even using poorly informative data.
Keyword Bayesian Population Modelling
Population Pharmacokinetic Analysis
Prior Elicitation
Pharmacology & Pharmacy
Transplant Recipients
Prior Distributions
Q-Index Code C1

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Excellence in Research Australia (ERA) - Collection
2007 Higher Education Research Data Collection
School of Pharmacy Publications
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Citation counts: TR Web of Science Citation Count  Cited 14 times in Thomson Reuters Web of Science Article | Citations
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Created: Wed, 15 Aug 2007, 09:40:12 EST