Weather variability, tides, and Barmah Forest virus disease in the Gladstone region, Australia

Naish, Suchithra, Hu, Wenbiao, Nicholls, Neville, Mackenzie, John S., McMichael, Anthony, J., Dale, Pat and Tong, Shilu (2006) Weather variability, tides, and Barmah Forest virus disease in the Gladstone region, Australia. Environmental Health Perspectives, 114 5: 678-683. doi:10.1289/ehp.8568

Author Naish, Suchithra
Hu, Wenbiao
Nicholls, Neville
Mackenzie, John S.
McMichael, Anthony, J.
Dale, Pat
Tong, Shilu
Title Weather variability, tides, and Barmah Forest virus disease in the Gladstone region, Australia
Journal name Environmental Health Perspectives   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0091-6765
Publication date 2006-05
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1289/ehp.8568
Open Access Status DOI
Volume 114
Issue 5
Start page 678
End page 683
Total pages 6
Place of publication Research Triangle Park, USA
Publisher National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences
Collection year 2006
Language eng
Subject CX
1117 Public Health and Health Services
1199 Other Medical and Health Sciences
111705 Environmental and Occupational Health and Safety
Formatted abstract
In this study we examined the impact of weather variability and tides on the transmission of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease and developed a weather-based forecasting model for BFV disease in the Gladstone region, Australia. We used seasonal autoregressive integrated moving-average (SARIMA) models to determine the contribution of weather variables to BFV transmission after the time-series data of response and explanatory variables were made stationary through seasonal differencing. We obtained data on the monthly counts of BFV cases, weather variables (e.g., mean minimum and maximum temperature, total rainfall, and mean relative humidity), high and low tides, and the population size in the Gladstone region between January 1992 and December 2001 from the Queensland Department of Health, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Transport, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. The SARIMA model shows that the 5-month moving average of minimum temperature (β = 0.15, p-value < 0.001) was statistically significantly and positively associated with BFV disease, whereas high tide in the current month (β = −1.03, p-value = 0.04) was statistically significantly and inversely associated with it. However, no significant association was found for other variables. These results may be applied to forecast the occurrence of BFV disease and to use public health resources in BFV control and prevention.
Keyword Barmah Forest virus
Gladstone region
Risk factors
Time series modeling
Q-Index Code CX

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Excellence in Research Australia (ERA) - Collection
School of Public Health Publications
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Created: Wed, 15 Aug 2007, 09:28:55 EST