Stochastic dynamic programming for election timing: A game theory approach

Lesmono, Dharma and Tonkes, Elliot (2006) Stochastic dynamic programming for election timing: A game theory approach. Asia-Pacific Journal of Operational Research, 23 3: 287-309. doi:10.1142/S0217595906000942

Author Lesmono, Dharma
Tonkes, Elliot
Title Stochastic dynamic programming for election timing: A game theory approach
Journal name Asia-Pacific Journal of Operational Research   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0217-5959
Publication date 2006-09
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1142/S0217595906000942
Volume 23
Issue 3
Start page 287
End page 309
Total pages 23
Place of publication Singapore
Publisher World Scientific Publ Co Pte Ltd
Collection year 2006
Language eng
Subject CX
Abstract In this paper, we consider dynamic programming for the election timing in the majoritarian parliamentary system such as in Australia, where the government has a constitutional right to call an early election. This right can give the government an advantage to remain in power for as long as possible by calling an election, when its popularity is high. On the other hand, the opposition's natural objective is to gain power, and it will apply controls termed as "boosts" to reduce the chance of the government being re-elected by introducing policy and economic responses. In this paper, we explore equilibrium solutions to the government, and the opposition strategies in a political game using stochastic dynamic programming. Results are given in terms of the expected remaining life in power, call and boost probabilities at each time at any level of popularity.
Keyword game theory
dynamic programming
Stochastic differential equation
Q-Index Code CX

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collection: School of Mathematics and Physics
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Citation counts: TR Web of Science Citation Count  Cited 1 times in Thomson Reuters Web of Science Article | Citations
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Created: Wed, 15 Aug 2007, 09:15:56 EST