Comparative empirical evaluations of internal migration models in subnational population projections

Wilson, Tom and Bell, Martin (2004) Comparative empirical evaluations of internal migration models in subnational population projections. Journal of Population Research, 21 2: 127-160. doi:10.1007/BF03031895

Attached Files (Some files may be inaccessible until you login with your UQ eSpace credentials)
Name Description MIMEType Size Downloads
mb_jpr_21_2_04.pdf mb_jpr_21_2_04.pdf application/pdf 31.22KB 222

Author Wilson, Tom
Bell, Martin
Title Comparative empirical evaluations of internal migration models in subnational population projections
Journal name Journal of Population Research   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1443-2447
1835-9469
Publication date 2004-11
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1007/BF03031895
Open Access Status File (Author Post-print)
Volume 21
Issue 2
Start page 127
End page 160
Total pages 34
Place of publication Canberra
Publisher Australian Population Association
Collection year 2004
Language eng
Subject 370500 Demography
370502 Migration
370501 Population Trends and Policies
C1
780107 Studies in human society
Abstract While population forecasters place considerable emphasis on the selection of appropriate migration assumptions, surprisingly little attention has been given to the effects on projection outcomes of the way internal migration is handled within population projection models. This paper compares population projections for Australia's states and territories prepared using ten different internal migration models but with identical assumptions for fertility, mortality and international migration and with the internal migration model parameters held constant. It is shown that the choice of migration model generates large differences in total population, geographical distribution and age--sex composition. It is argued that model choice should be guided by balancing model reality with practical utility and model performance is examined against these criteria. Of the ten models evaluated the authors argue that the migration pool, biregional, and biregional with net constraints models offer a good compromise between conceptual rigour and practicality. If the projected origin-destination flows are required then one of the versions of the standard multiregional model with reduced data inputs is preferred. The large variation in projection outputs points to the need for a better understanding of the spatio-temporal structure of migration in Australia.
Keyword Models
Internal migration
Population projections
Australia
Subnational populations
Regional demography
Comparative analysis
Q-Index Code C1

 
Versions
Version Filter Type
Citation counts: Google Scholar Search Google Scholar
Created: Thu, 23 Nov 2006, 10:00:00 EST by Jesse Mills on behalf of School of Geography, Planning & Env Management