Economic costs of chronic disease through lost productive life years (PLYs) among Australians aged 45-64 years from 2015 to 2030: results from a microsimulation model

Schofield, Deborah, Shrestha, Rupendra N., Cunich, Michelle M., Tanton, Robert, Veerman, Lennert, Kelly, Simon J. and Passey, Megan E. (2016) Economic costs of chronic disease through lost productive life years (PLYs) among Australians aged 45-64 years from 2015 to 2030: results from a microsimulation model. BMJ Open, 6 9: . doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2016-011151


Author Schofield, Deborah
Shrestha, Rupendra N.
Cunich, Michelle M.
Tanton, Robert
Veerman, Lennert
Kelly, Simon J.
Passey, Megan E.
Title Economic costs of chronic disease through lost productive life years (PLYs) among Australians aged 45-64 years from 2015 to 2030: results from a microsimulation model
Journal name BMJ Open   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 2044-6055
Publication date 2016-09-01
Year available 2016
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1136/bmjopen-2016-011151
Open Access Status DOI
Volume 6
Issue 9
Total pages 9
Place of publication London, United Kingdom
Publisher BMJ Group
Collection year 2017
Language eng
Formatted abstract
Objectives To project the number of older workers with lost productive life years (PLYs) due to chronic disease and resultant lost income; and lost taxes and increased welfare payments from 2015 to 2030.

Design, setting and participants Using a microsimulation model, Health&WealthMOD2030, the costs of chronic disease in Australians aged 45–64 were projected to 2030. The model integrates household survey data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics Surveys of Disability, Ageing and Carers (SDACs) 2003 and 2009, output from long-standing microsimulation models (STINMOD (Static Incomes Model) and APPSIM (Australian Population and Policy Simulation Model)) used by various government departments, population and labour force growth data from Treasury, and disease trends data from the Australian Burden of Disease and Injury Study (2003). Respondents aged 45–64 years in the SDACs 2003 and 2009 formed the base population.

Main outcome measures Lost PLYs due to chronic disease; resultant lost income, lost taxes and increased welfare payments in 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030.

Results We projected 380 000 (6.4%) people aged 45–64 years with lost PLYs in 2015, increasing to 462 000 (6.5%) in 2030—a 22% increase in absolute numbers. Those with lost PLYs experience the largest reduction in income than any other group in each year compared to those employed full time without a chronic disease, and this income gap widens over time. The total economic loss due to lost PLYs consisted of lost income modelled at $A12.6 billion in 2015, increasing to $A20.5 billion in 2030—a 62.7% increase. Additional costs to the government consisted of increased welfare payments at $A6.2 billion in 2015, increasing to $A7.3 billion in 2030—a 17.7% increase; and a loss of $A3.1 billion in taxes in 2015, increasing to $A4.7 billion in 2030—a growth of 51.6%.

Conclusions There is a need for greater investment in effective preventive health interventions which improve workers’ health and work capacity.
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: HERDC Pre-Audit
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