Assessing the risk of domestic violence recidivism

Fitzgerald, Robin and Graham, Timothy (2016) Assessing the risk of domestic violence recidivism. Crime and Justice Bulletin, 189 .

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Name Description MIMEType Size Downloads
Author Fitzgerald, Robin
Graham, Timothy
Title Assessing the risk of domestic violence recidivism
Journal name Crime and Justice Bulletin
ISSN 1030-1046
ISBN 9781925343182
Publication date 2016-05
Year available 2016
Sub-type Article (original research)
Open Access Status Not Open Access
Volume 189
Total pages 12
Place of publication Parramatta, NSW, Australia
Publisher New South Wales. Attorney General's Department * Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research
Collection year 2017
Language eng
Formatted abstract
Aim: To determine what factors independently predict violent DV-related re-offending among a cohort of people convicted of a(ny) DV offence and given a non-custodial penalty.

Method: Data from the NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research (BOCSAR) Reoffending Database were used to examine violent DV-related reconviction. A cohort of DV offenders convicted in 2011-12 was first identified using domestic violence lawpart codes, and followed up for two years. To identify the best fitting model we first examined bi-variate relationships between explanatory variables and the dependent variable. We then estimated a multivariate logistic regression model to determine which variables independently predicted reconviction. Finally, we tested the predictive validity of the model using a range of cross-validation strategies.

Results: Among the cohort of adult offenders (n = 14,660), 8% were reconvicted of a violent DV-related offence within two years of the index conviction. Eleven explanatory variables were found to best predict reconviction – representing offender demographic, index offence, and criminal history characteristics. The resulting model showed acceptable levels of predictive validity.

Conclusion: To the extent that they direct appropriate interventions, risk assessment tools could be one part of a more complete community safety strategy aimed at violent DV recidivism. Limitations of the current study are discussed.
Keyword Domestic violence
Adminstrative data
Violent offenders
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status UQ
Additional Notes

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: HERDC Pre-Audit
School of Social Science Publications
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Created: Thu, 11 Aug 2016, 12:50:05 EST by Robin Fitzgerald on behalf of School of Social Science