Rainfall persistence: Detection, modelling, costs and value of probability information

Harrison S.R. (1981) Rainfall persistence: Detection, modelling, costs and value of probability information. Agricultural Systems, 6 4: 285-302. doi:10.1016/0308-521X(81)90064-0


Author Harrison S.R.
Title Rainfall persistence: Detection, modelling, costs and value of probability information
Journal name Agricultural Systems   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0308-521X
Publication date 1981
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1016/0308-521X(81)90064-0
Volume 6
Issue 4
Start page 285
End page 302
Total pages 18
Subject 1102 Cardiovascular Medicine and Haematology
Abstract The basic hypothesis discussed in this paper is that the presence of persistence or bunchiness in rainfall sequences reduces farm profitability. After a review of past investigations into rainfall persistence, statistical tests are shown to indicate positive inter-temporal correlations in excess of seasonality for weekly and monthly precipitation data from three recording stations in the northern Brigalow region of Queensland. A relatively simple procedure is advanced for generating artificial rainfall sequences containing persistence. Simulation experiments with a grazing-property model incorporating this synthesis procedure are used to test the basic hypothesis. Results indicate substantial reductions in both income and the rate of asset accumulation due to persistence in weekly rainfall. Finally, provision of meteorological information on persistence in the form of conditional rainfall probabilities is proposed, and a simulation and decision theory approach is suggested for determining the potential value of such information.
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status Unknown

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collection: Scopus Import
 
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Created: Tue, 26 Jul 2016, 04:12:11 EST by System User