Forecast accuracy of australian subnational population projections

Bell M. and Skinner J. (1992) Forecast accuracy of australian subnational population projections. Journal of the Australian Population Association, 9 2: 207-235. doi:10.1007/BF03029370

Author Bell M.
Skinner J.
Title Forecast accuracy of australian subnational population projections
Journal name Journal of the Australian Population Association   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1443-2447
Publication date 1992
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1007/BF03029370
Volume 9
Issue 2
Start page 207
End page 235
Total pages 29
Subject 3317 Demography
2700 Medicine
Abstract Despite the considerable resources devoted to making demographic projections in Australia over the past two decades, there have been few attempts to evaluate the performance of these projections in terms of forecast accuracy. This paper first considers the role of accuracy amongst other objectives of projection activity. Accepting accuracy as a legitimate goal, we then assess the performance of 48 sets of population projections and forecasts for states and territories of Australia prepared since 1970. Projection accuracy is assessed by reference to length of forecast horizon, population size and rate of growth. We also examine the main sources of forecast error in selected projections for each state and compare the performance of past projections with alternatives based on simple extrapolation of contemporary population trends.
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status Unknown

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collection: Scopus Import
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Citation counts: Scopus Citation Count Cited 4 times in Scopus Article | Citations
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