Temperature variability and mortality: a multi-country study

Guo, Yuming, Gasparrini, Antonio, Armstrong, Ben G., Tawatsupa, Benjawan, Tobias, Aurelio, Lavigne, Eric, de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline, Pan, Xiaochuan, Kim, Ho, Hashizume, Masahiro, Honda, Yasushi, Guo, Yue Leon, Wu, Chang-Fu, Zanobetti, Antonella, Schwartz, Joel D., Bell, Michelle L., Overcenco, Ala, Punnasiri, Kornwipa, Li, Shanshan, Tian, Linwei, Saldiva, Paulo, Williams, Gail and Tong, Shilu (2016) Temperature variability and mortality: a multi-country study. Environmental Health Perspectives, 124 10: 1554-1559. doi:10.1289/EHP149

Author Guo, Yuming
Gasparrini, Antonio
Armstrong, Ben G.
Tawatsupa, Benjawan
Tobias, Aurelio
Lavigne, Eric
de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline
Pan, Xiaochuan
Kim, Ho
Hashizume, Masahiro
Honda, Yasushi
Guo, Yue Leon
Wu, Chang-Fu
Zanobetti, Antonella
Schwartz, Joel D.
Bell, Michelle L.
Overcenco, Ala
Punnasiri, Kornwipa
Li, Shanshan
Tian, Linwei
Saldiva, Paulo
Williams, Gail
Tong, Shilu
Title Temperature variability and mortality: a multi-country study
Journal name Environmental Health Perspectives   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0091-6765
Publication date 2016-06-03
Year available 2016
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1289/EHP149
Open Access Status DOI
Volume 124
Issue 10
Start page 1554
End page 1559
Total pages 27
Place of publication Research Triangle Park, United States
Publisher U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
Collection year 2017
Language eng
Formatted abstract
Background: The evidence and method are limited for the associations between mortality and temperature variability (TV) within or between days.

Objectives: To develop a novel method to calculate TV, and to investigate the TV-mortality associations using a large multi-country dataset.

Methods: We collected daily data of temperature and mortality from 372 locations in 12 countries/regions (Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Japan, Moldova, South Korea, Spain, Taiwan, Thailand, UK, and USA). We calculated TV by standard deviation of minimum and maximum temperatures during the exposure days. Two-stage analyses were used to assess the relation between TV and mortality. Firstly, a Poisson regression model allowing over-dispersion was used to estimate the community-specific TV-mortality relation, after controlling for potential confounders. In the second stage, a meta-analysis was used to pool the effect estimates within each country.

Results: There was a significant association between TV and mortality in all countries, even after controlling for the effects of daily mean temperature. In stratified analyses, TV was still significantly associated with mortality in cold, hot, and moderate seasons. Mortality risks related to TV were higher in hot areas than cold areas when using short TV exposure (0–1 days), while TV-related mortality risks were higher in moderate areas than cold and hot areas when using longer TV exposure days (0–7 days).

Conclusions: Results indicate that more attention should be paid to unstable weather conditions in order to protect health. These findings may have implications for developing public health policies for managing health risks of climate change.
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
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Created: Sat, 04 Jun 2016, 12:12:31 EST by Yuming Guo on behalf of School of Public Health