Patterns of mammalian population decline inform conservation action

Di Fonzo, Martina M. I., Collen, Ben, Chauvenet, Aliénor L. M. and Mace, Georgina M. (2016) Patterns of mammalian population decline inform conservation action. Journal of Applied Ecology, 53 4: 1046-1054. doi:10.1111/1365-2664.12659

Author Di Fonzo, Martina M. I.
Collen, Ben
Chauvenet, Aliénor L. M.
Mace, Georgina M.
Title Patterns of mammalian population decline inform conservation action
Journal name Journal of Applied Ecology   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1365-2664
Publication date 2016-04-19
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1111/1365-2664.12659
Open Access Status Not Open Access
Volume 53
Issue 4
Start page 1046
End page 1054
Total pages 9
Place of publication Chichester, West Sussex, United Kingdom
Publisher Wiley-Blackwell Publishing
Collection year 2017
Language eng
Formatted abstract
1. Evaluations of wildlife population dynamics have the potential to convey valuable information on the type of pressure affecting a population and could help predict future changes in the population's trajectory. Greater understanding of different patterns of population declines could provide a useful mechanism for assessing decline severity in the wild and identifying those populations that are more likely to exhibit severe declines.
2. We identified 93 incidences of decline within 75 populations of mammalian species using a time-series analysis method. These included linear, quadratic convex (accelerating) declines, exponential concave (decelerating) declines and quadratic concave declines (representing recovering populations). Excluding linear declines left a data set of 85 declines to model the relationship between each decline-curve type and a range of biological, anthropogenic and time-series descriptor explanatory variables.
3. None of the decline-curve types were spatially or phylogenetically clustered. The only characteristic that could be consistently associated with any curve type was the time at which they were more likely to occur within a time series. Quadratic convex declines were more likely to occur at the start of the time series, while recovering curve shapes (quadratic concave declines) were more likely at the end of the time series.
4. Synthesis and applications. The ability to link certain factors with specific decline dynamics across a number of mammalian populations is useful for management purposes as it provides decision-makers with potential triggers upon which to base their conservation actions. We propose that the identification of quadratic convex declines could be used as an early-warning signal of potentially severe decline dynamics. For such a population, increased population monitoring effort should be deployed to diagnose the cause of its decline and avert possible extinctions. Conversely, the presence of a quadratic concave decline suggests that the population has already undergone a period of serious decline but is now in the process of recovery. Such populations will require different types of conservation actions, focussing on enhancing their chances of recovery.
Keyword Early-warning signal
Extinction risk
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
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School of Biological Sciences Publications
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