Spatiotemporal analysis of heat and heat wave effects on elderly mortality in Texas, 2006-2011

Chien, Lung-Chang, Guo, Yuming and Zhang, Kai (2016) Spatiotemporal analysis of heat and heat wave effects on elderly mortality in Texas, 2006-2011. Science of The Total Environment, 562 845-851. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.04.042


Author Chien, Lung-Chang
Guo, Yuming
Zhang, Kai
Title Spatiotemporal analysis of heat and heat wave effects on elderly mortality in Texas, 2006-2011
Journal name Science of The Total Environment   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1879-1026
0048-9697
Publication date 2016-08-15
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.04.042
Open Access Status Not Open Access
Volume 562
Start page 845
End page 851
Total pages 7
Place of publication Amsterdam, NX, Netherlands
Publisher Elsevier
Collection year 2017
Language eng
Formatted abstract
Background:  Heat and heat waves have been linked to the increased risk of deaths, hospital admissions, and emergency visits.

Objectives:  This study presents a spatiotemporal analysis of heat and heat wave effects on elderly mortality (≥65 years) in Texas.

Methods:  We compiled a six-year daily weather and mortality counts dataset from 254 counties in Texas during 2006–2011. Heat index (HI), a combination of temperature and relative humidity, was used as the exposure metric in this study. Associations between daily all-cause elderly mortality and daily maximum HI and heat waves (≥2 days of county-specific daily maximum HI > 95th percentiles) were examined using a quasi-Poisson regression. A Markov random field smoother was included in the model to account for spatial autocorrelations and spatial heterogeneity. The model also controlled for long-term trend and seasonality in mortality, and the effects of day of the week.

Discussion:  On average, the lag effect of heat on elderly mortality risk lasted up to 10 days, and the cumulative heat effects started to increase rapidly when daily maximum HI exceeded the 90th percentile in Texas. Elderly living in Northwest Texas and parts of West Texas were at greater risk of elderly mortality attributable to heat waves, and the highest relative risk for elderly mortality occurred in El Paso County (4.70, 95% Confidence Interval = 4.33, 5.10).

Conclusions:  Our study indicates strong geographical variations of heat wave effects on elderly mortality risk in Texas.
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: HERDC Pre-Audit
School of Public Health Publications
 
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Created: Tue, 26 Apr 2016, 21:13:45 EST by Yuming Guo on behalf of School of Public Health