Projecting ozone-related mortality in East China

Madaniyazi, Lina, Nagashima, Tatsuya, Guo, Yuming, Pan, Xiaochuan and Tong, Shilu (2016) Projecting ozone-related mortality in East China. Environment International, 93 2016: 165-172. doi:10.1016/j.envint.2016.03.040

Author Madaniyazi, Lina
Nagashima, Tatsuya
Guo, Yuming
Pan, Xiaochuan
Tong, Shilu
Title Projecting ozone-related mortality in East China
Journal name Environment International   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0160-4120
Publication date 2016-04-19
Year available 2016
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1016/j.envint.2016.03.040
Open Access Status Not Open Access
Volume 93
Issue 2016
Start page 165
End page 172
Total pages 8
Place of publication Kidlington, Oxford United Kingdom
Publisher Pergamon Press
Collection year 2017
Language eng
Formatted abstract

The concentrations of ozone (O3) in China are increasing, especially in East China, but its future trends and potential health impacts remain to be explored.


The objective was to assess future trends in O3 concentrations and related premature death in East China between 2005 and 2030.


First, a global chemical transport model (MIROC-ESM-CHEM) and regional chemical transport modelling system (including the Weather Research and Forecasting model and the Community Multiscale Air Quality model) were combined to estimate daily O3 concentrations in 2005 and 2030 in East China under the “current legislation” (CLE) and “maximum technically feasible reduction” (MFR) scenarios which were applied globally. O3 concentrations were then linked with population projections, mortality projections, and O3-mortality associations to estimate changes in O3-related mortality in East China.


The annual mean O3 concentration was projected to increase in East China between 2005 and 2030 under the CLE scenario, while decrease under the MFR scenario. Under the CLE scenario, O3-attributable health burden could increase by at least 40,000 premature deaths in East China, without considering the population growth. Under the MFR scenario, the health burden could decrease by up to 260,000 premature deaths as a result of the reduction in O3 concentration with a static population. However, when the population growth was considered, O3-attributable health burden could increase by up to 46,000 premature deaths in East China under the MFR scenario.


The results suggest that the health burden attributable to O3 may increase in East China in 2030.
Keyword Ozone
East China
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: HERDC Pre-Audit
School of Public Health Publications
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Created: Mon, 25 Apr 2016, 10:59:04 EST by Yuming Guo on behalf of School of Public Health