Which adolescents develop persistent substance dependence in adulthood? Using population-representative longitudinal data to inform universal risk assessment

Meier, M. H., Hall, W., Caspi, A., Belsky, D. W., Cerda, M., Harrington, H. L., Houts, R., Poulton, R. and Moffitt, T. E. (2016) Which adolescents develop persistent substance dependence in adulthood? Using population-representative longitudinal data to inform universal risk assessment. Psychological Medicine, 46 4: 877-889. doi:10.1017/S0033291715002482


Author Meier, M. H.
Hall, W.
Caspi, A.
Belsky, D. W.
Cerda, M.
Harrington, H. L.
Houts, R.
Poulton, R.
Moffitt, T. E.
Title Which adolescents develop persistent substance dependence in adulthood? Using population-representative longitudinal data to inform universal risk assessment
Journal name Psychological Medicine   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1469-8978
0033-2917
Publication date 2016-03-01
Year available 2015
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1017/S0033291715002482
Open Access Status Not Open Access
Volume 46
Issue 4
Start page 877
End page 889
Total pages 13
Place of publication Cambridge, United Kingdom
Publisher Cambridge University Press
Collection year 2016
Language eng
Formatted abstract
Background To our knowledge, there are no universal screening tools for substance dependence that (1) were developed using a population-based sample, (2) estimate total risk briefly and inexpensively by incorporating a relatively small number of well-established risk factors, and (3) aggregate risk factors using a simple algorithm. We created a universal screening tool that incorporates these features to identify adolescents at risk for persistent substance dependence in adulthood.

Method Participants were members of a representative cohort of 1037 individuals born in Dunedin, New Zealand in 1972–1973 and followed prospectively to age 38 years, with 95% retention. We assessed a small set of childhood and adolescent risk factors: family history of substance dependence, childhood psychopathology (conduct disorder, depression), early exposure to substances, frequent substance use in adolescence, sex, and childhood socioeconomic status. We defined the outcome (persistent substance dependence in adulthood) as dependence on one or more of alcohol, tobacco, cannabis, or hard drugs at ≥3 assessment ages: 21, 26, 32, and 38 years.

Results A cumulative risk index, a simple sum of nine childhood and adolescent risk factors, predicted persistent substance dependence in adulthood with considerable accuracy (AUC = 0.80).

Conclusions A cumulative risk score can accurately predict which adolescents in the general population will develop persistent substance dependence in adulthood.
Keyword Longitudinal
Risk assessment
Substance dependence
Universal screen
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: UQ Centre for Clinical Research Publications
Official 2016 Collection
 
Versions
Version Filter Type
Citation counts: TR Web of Science Citation Count  Cited 2 times in Thomson Reuters Web of Science Article | Citations
Scopus Citation Count Cited 2 times in Scopus Article | Citations
Google Scholar Search Google Scholar
Created: Tue, 01 Mar 2016, 00:28:11 EST by System User on behalf of UQ Centre for Clinical Research