Impact of projected climates on drought occurrence in the Australian wheatbelt

Watson, James, Zheng, Bangyou, Chapman, Scott C. and Chenu, Karine (2015). Impact of projected climates on drought occurrence in the Australian wheatbelt. In: Building Productive, Diverse and Sustainable Landscapes: Proceedings of 17th Agronomy Conference 2015. 17th Australian Agronomy Conference, Hobart, Australia, (163-167). 20-24 September 2015.

Author Watson, James
Zheng, Bangyou
Chapman, Scott C.
Chenu, Karine
Title of paper Impact of projected climates on drought occurrence in the Australian wheatbelt
Conference name 17th Australian Agronomy Conference
Conference location Hobart, Australia
Conference dates 20-24 September 2015
Convener Meinke, Holger
Proceedings title Building Productive, Diverse and Sustainable Landscapes: Proceedings of 17th Agronomy Conference 2015
Place of Publication Warragul, VIC Australia
Publisher Australian Society of Agronomy
Publication Year 2015
Sub-type Fully published paper
Open Access Status Not Open Access
ISSN 9780646952246
Start page 163
End page 167
Total pages 4
Chapter number 35
Total chapters 248
Collection year 2016
Language eng
Formatted Abstract/Summary
Wheat is a staple crop, and in Australia it is primarily produced in rainfed environments. Climate change projections indicate an increase in future rainfall variability and in temperature across the Australian wheatbelt. Coupled with the continued increase in demand for this crop due to rising populations and living standards, climate change may significantly impact the Australian wheat industry. The lead times involved in adapting cultivars and management practices mean that planning for adaptation must often begin many years before implementation. Thus timely, realistic assessments of the crop-level implications of climate change are critical to the long-term planning of breeders, farmers and policy makers. Such assessments require extensive analysis of the complex interplay between local environment, genotype, and adaptive management practices. In this study we capture these interactions for 60 representative sites using the APSIM-Wheat crop model, and simulated the impact that 33 climate model projections had on the distribution of drought environment types across the Australian wheatbelt. Simulation results indicate that changes in future drought patterns are highly region-specific. Significant variations in projected changes were found across climate models, giving local ranges of uncertainty to consider in planning efforts. However, simulations for the majority of climate models projected increased frequencies of severe drought conditions in the Western area of the wheatbelt, and fewer severe droughts in other regions. Overall, simulations indicate that all areas of the Australian wheatbelt will continue to experience drought conditions this century, and that adaptation planning is necessary to match future wheat demand.
Keyword Wheat
Climate change
Water deficit
Environment characterisation
Crop modelling
APSIM
Q-Index Code E1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status UQ

 
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Created: Tue, 23 Feb 2016, 16:04:56 EST by Dr Karine Chenu on behalf of Centre for Plant Science