Assessment of the potential impacts of wheat plant traits across environments by combining crop modeling and global sensitivity analysis

Casadebaig, Pierre, Zheng, Bangyou, Chapman, Scott, Huth, Neil, Faivre, Robert and Chenu, Karine (2016) Assessment of the potential impacts of wheat plant traits across environments by combining crop modeling and global sensitivity analysis. Plos One, 11 1: . doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0146385


Author Casadebaig, Pierre
Zheng, Bangyou
Chapman, Scott
Huth, Neil
Faivre, Robert
Chenu, Karine
Title Assessment of the potential impacts of wheat plant traits across environments by combining crop modeling and global sensitivity analysis
Journal name Plos One   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1932-6203
Publication date 2016-01-22
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1371/journal.pone.0146385
Open Access Status DOI
Volume 11
Issue 1
Total pages 27
Place of publication San Francisco, CA, United States
Publisher Public Library of Science
Collection year 2017
Language eng
Formatted abstract
A crop can be viewed as a complex system with outputs (e.g. yield) that are affected by inputs of genetic, physiology, pedo-climatic and management information. Application of numerical methods for model exploration assist in evaluating the major most influential inputs, providing the simulation model is a credible description of the biological system. A sensitivity analysis was used to assess the simulated impact on yield of a suite of traits involved in major processes of crop growth and development, and to evaluate how the simulated value of such traits varies across environments and in relation to other traits (which can be interpreted as a virtual change in genetic background). The study focused on wheat in Australia, with an emphasis on adaptation to low rainfall conditions. A large set of traits (90) was evaluated in a wide target population of environments (4 sites × 125 years), management practices (3 sowing dates × 3 nitrogen fertilization levels) and CO2 (2 levels). The Morris sensitivity analysis method was used to sample the parameter space and reduce computational requirements, while maintaining a realistic representation of the targeted trait × environment × management landscape (∼ 82 million individual simulations in total). The patterns of parameter × environment × management interactions were investigated for the most influential parameters, considering a potential genetic range of +/- 20% compared to a reference cultivar. Main (i.e. linear) and interaction (i.e. non-linear and interaction) sensitivity indices calculated for most of APSIM-Wheat parameters allowed the identification of 42 parameters substantially impacting yield in most target environments. Among these, a subset of parameters related to phenology, resource acquisition, resource use efficiency and biomass allocation were identified as potential candidates for crop (and model) improvement.
Keyword Water-limited environments
Spring bread wheat
Grain yield
Systems simulation
Drought tolerance
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status UQ
Additional Notes Article number e0146385

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: HERDC Pre-Audit
Queensland Alliance for Agriculture and Food Innovation
 
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Citation counts: TR Web of Science Citation Count  Cited 2 times in Thomson Reuters Web of Science Article | Citations
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