Potential economic impact of Panama disease (tropical race 4) on the Australian banana industry

Cook, David C., Taylor, Andrew S., Meldrum, Rachel A. and Drenth, Andre (2015) Potential economic impact of Panama disease (tropical race 4) on the Australian banana industry. Journal of Plant Diseases and Protection, 122 5-6: 229-237.

Author Cook, David C.
Taylor, Andrew S.
Meldrum, Rachel A.
Drenth, Andre
Title Potential economic impact of Panama disease (tropical race 4) on the Australian banana industry
Journal name Journal of Plant Diseases and Protection   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1861-3829
Publication date 2015-12
Sub-type Article (original research)
Open Access Status Not Open Access
Volume 122
Issue 5-6
Start page 229
End page 237
Total pages 9
Place of publication Stuttgart, Germany
Publisher Verlag Eugen Ulmer GmbH
Collection year 2016
Language eng
Formatted abstract
Panama disease, caused by Fusarium oxysporum f.sp. cubense tropical race 4, is considered to be one of the most severe threats facing the banana industry worldwide. Tropical race 4 has rapidly spread throughout Southeast Asia since first being reported from Taiwan in 1990 and Indonesia in 1992. It was first discovered in Australia in 1997 where strict quarantine management contained its distribution to the Northern Territory for almost two decades until March 2015 when it was detected in Tully, North Queensland. The spread of this disease to the major banana production areas in Queensland could have a severe impact on the Australian banana industry as no effective chemical control options exist and no resistance has as yet been identified in agronomically acceptable banana varieties. However, given its successful containment in the Northern Territory there is uncertainty about future losses, and consequently what resources should be expended on its continued control. In this paper, we construct a dynamic model to estimate potential financial consequences for the Australia banana industry over time if the disease spreads beyond its current distribution. Scenarios modelled account for the possibility of spread via natural means described by a diffusion-like process, and also by large jumps mediated by human activities. Aggregating results of likely spread over time, we predict the disease will cause industry losses exceeding $138 million per year despite a slow rate of spread.
Keyword Banana wilt disease
Fusarium oxysporum f. sp cubense tropical race 4
F-Sp Cubense
Biological Invasions
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Non HERDC
School of Agriculture and Food Sciences
Queensland Alliance for Agriculture and Food Innovation
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