Bayesian estimation of the dynamics of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza transmission in Queensland: A space-time SIR-based model

Huang, Xiaodong, Clements, Archie C.A., Williams, Gail, Mengersen, Kerrie, Tong, Shilu and Hu, Wenbiao (2016) Bayesian estimation of the dynamics of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza transmission in Queensland: A space-time SIR-based model. Environmental Research, 146 308-314. doi:10.1016/j.envres.2016.01.013


Author Huang, Xiaodong
Clements, Archie C.A.
Williams, Gail
Mengersen, Kerrie
Tong, Shilu
Hu, Wenbiao
Title Bayesian estimation of the dynamics of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza transmission in Queensland: A space-time SIR-based model
Journal name Environmental Research   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1096-0953
0013-9351
Publication date 2016-04
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1016/j.envres.2016.01.013
Volume 146
Start page 308
End page 314
Total pages 7
Place of publication Maryland Heights, United States
Publisher Academic Press
Collection year 2017
Language eng
Formatted abstract
Background
A pandemic strain of influenza A spread rapidly around the world in 2009, now referred to as pandemic (H1N1) 2009. This study aimed to examine the spatiotemporal variation in the transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 associated with changes in local socio-environmental conditions from May 7–December 31, 2009, at a postal area level in Queensland, Australia.

Method
We used the data on laboratory-confirmed H1N1 cases to examine the spatiotemporal dynamics of transmission using a flexible Bayesian, space–time, Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) modelling approach. The model incorporated parameters describing spatiotemporal variation in H1N1 infection and local socio-environmental factors.

Results
The weekly transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 was negatively associated with the weekly area-mean maximum temperature at a lag of 1 week (LMXT) (posterior mean: −0.341; 95% credible interval (CI): −0.370–−0.311) and the socio-economic index for area (SEIFA) (posterior mean: −0.003; 95% CI: −0.004–−0.001), and was positively associated with the product of LMXT and the weekly area-mean vapour pressure at a lag of 1 week (LVAP) (posterior mean: 0.008; 95% CI: 0.007–0.009). There was substantial spatiotemporal variation in transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 across Queensland over the epidemic period. High random effects of estimated transmission rates were apparent in remote areas and some postal areas with higher proportion of indigenous populations and smaller overall populations.

Conclusions
Local SEIFA and local atmospheric conditions were associated with the transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009. The more populated regions displayed consistent and synchronized epidemics with low average transmission rates. The less populated regions had high average transmission rates with more variations during the H1N1 epidemic period.
Keyword Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza
Spatial conditional autoregressive model
Susceptible-Infected-Removed model
Transmission rate
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: HERDC Pre-Audit
School of Public Health Publications
 
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