An event-based modelling approach for assessing downburst risk to structures

Mason, Matthew (2015). An event-based modelling approach for assessing downburst risk to structures. In: Dilum Fernando, Jin-Guang Teng and Jose L. Torero, Proceedings of the Second International Conference on Performance-based and Life-cycle Structural Engineering (PLSE 2015). International Conference on Performance-based and Life-cycle Structural Engineering, Brisbane, QLD, Australia, (842-850). 9-11 December 2015. doi:10.14264/uql.2016.421

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Author Mason, Matthew
Title of paper An event-based modelling approach for assessing downburst risk to structures
Conference name International Conference on Performance-based and Life-cycle Structural Engineering
Conference location Brisbane, QLD, Australia
Conference dates 9-11 December 2015
Proceedings title Proceedings of the Second International Conference on Performance-based and Life-cycle Structural Engineering (PLSE 2015)
Place of Publication Brisbane, QLD, Australia
Publisher School of Civil Engineering, The University of Queensland
Publication Year 2015
Sub-type Fully published paper
DOI 10.14264/uql.2016.421
Open Access Status File (Publisher version)
ISBN 9781742721477
Editor Dilum Fernando
Jin-Guang Teng
Jose L. Torero
Start page 842
End page 850
Total pages 9
Collection year 2016
Language eng
Formatted Abstract/Summary
This paper proposes a stochastic event-based modelling approach for estimating downburst wind hazard. Unlike existing models it makes use of large scale atmospheric information to build upon observational records so that a broad range of input model parameters can be generated. Coupling this information into such a model means it may be applied in regions where no observational records currently exist, or they are of poor quality. Progress towards full model development has thus far focused primarily on the methodological approach required to couple atmospheric and observational data so that input model parameters can be developed. An example of this coupling is provided for the south east Queensland region of Australia, and estimates of annual downburstproducing storm counts are generated. This example shows the proposed model can reasonably replicate historic trends in mean annual event counts, but was unable to capture the full inter-annual variability in these counts. Future work will refine this approach and continue to develop the full hazard/risk model.
Keyword Downburst
Wind
Reanalysis
Wind risk
Wind hazard
Q-Index Code E1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status UQ

 
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Created: Tue, 05 Jan 2016, 16:26:48 EST by Jeannette Watson on behalf of School of Civil Engineering