El Ninõ-Southern Oscillation, local weather and occurrences of dengue virus serotypes

Huang, Xiaodong, Clements ,Archie C. A., Williams, Gail, Devine, Gregor, Tong, Shilu and Hu, Wenbiao (2015) El Ninõ-Southern Oscillation, local weather and occurrences of dengue virus serotypes. Scientific Reports, 5 . doi:10.1038/srep16806


Author Huang, Xiaodong
Clements ,Archie C. A.
Williams, Gail
Devine, Gregor
Tong, Shilu
Hu, Wenbiao
Title El Ninõ-Southern Oscillation, local weather and occurrences of dengue virus serotypes
Journal name Scientific Reports   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 2045-2322
Publication date 2015-11-19
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1038/srep16806
Open Access Status DOI
Volume 5
Total pages 1
Place of publication London, United Kingdom
Publisher Nature Publishing Group
Collection year 2016
Language eng
Abstract Severe dengue fever is usually associated with secondary infection by a dengue virus (DENV) serotype (1 to 4) that is different to the serotype of the primary infection. Dengue outbreaks only occur following importations of DENV in Cairns, Australia. However, the majority of imported cases do not result in autochthonous transmission in Cairns. Although DENV transmission is strongly associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate cycle and local weather conditions, the frequency and potential risk factors of infections with the different DENV serotypes, including whether or not they differ, is unknown. This study used a classification tree model to identify the hierarchical interactions between Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), local weather factors, the presence of imported serotypes and the occurrence of the four autochthonous DENV serotypes from January 2000–December 2009 in Cairns. We found that the 12-week moving average of SOI and the 2-week moving average of maximum temperature were the most important factors influencing the variation in the weekly occurrence of the four DENV serotypes, the likelihoods of the occurrence of the four DENV serotypes may be unequal under the same environmental conditions, and occurrence may be influenced by changes in global and local environmental conditions in Cairns.
Q-Index Code CX
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Non HERDC
School of Public Health Publications
 
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