Cost of inaction on sugar-sweetened beverage consumption: implications for obesity in South Africa

Tugendhaft, Aviva, Manyema, Mercy, Veerman, Lennert J., Chola, Lumbwe, Labadarios, Demetre and Hofman, Karen J. (2015) Cost of inaction on sugar-sweetened beverage consumption: implications for obesity in South Africa. Public Health Nutrition, 19 13: 2296-2304. doi:10.1017/S1368980015003006

Author Tugendhaft, Aviva
Manyema, Mercy
Veerman, Lennert J.
Chola, Lumbwe
Labadarios, Demetre
Hofman, Karen J.
Title Cost of inaction on sugar-sweetened beverage consumption: implications for obesity in South Africa
Journal name Public Health Nutrition   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1475-2727
Publication date 2015-10-23
Year available 2015
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1017/S1368980015003006
Open Access Status Not yet assessed
Volume 19
Issue 13
Start page 2296
End page 2304
Total pages 9
Place of publication Cambridge, United Kingdom
Publisher Cambridge University Press
Collection year 2016
Language eng
Formatted abstract
Objective: To estimate the effect of increased sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption on future adult obesity prevalence in South Africa in the absence of preventive measures.

Design: A model was constructed to simulate the effect of a 2·4 % annual increase in SSB consumption on obesity prevalence. The model computed the change in energy intake assuming a compounding increase in SSB consumption. The population distribution of BMI by age and sex was modelled by fitting measured data from the 2012 South African National Income Dynamics Survey to the log-normal distribution and shifting the mean values.

Setting: Over the past decade the prevalence of obesity and related non-communicable diseases has increased in South Africa, as have the sales and availability of SSB. Soft drink sales in South Africa are projected to grow between 2012 and 2017 at an annual compounded growth rate of 2·4 % in the absence of preventive measures to curb consumption.
Results A 2·4 % annual growth in SSB sales alongside population growth and ageing will result in an additional 1 287 000 obese adults in South Africa by 2017, 22 % of which will be due to increased SSB consumption.

Conclusions: In order to meet the South African target of reducing the number of people who are obese and/or overweight by 10 % by 2020, the country cannot afford to delay implementing effective population-wide interventions. In the face of plans to increase growth of SSB, the country will soon face even greater challenges in overcoming obesity and related non-communicable diseases.
Keyword Cost
Sugar-sweetened beverages
South Africa
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Official 2016 Collection
School of Public Health Publications
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