An integrated scenario analysis for future zero-carbon energy system

Zhang, Qi, Mclellan, Benjamin C. and Li, Hailong (2015) An integrated scenario analysis for future zero-carbon energy system. International Journal of Energy Research, 39 7: 993-1010. doi:10.1002/er.3313

Author Zhang, Qi
Mclellan, Benjamin C.
Li, Hailong
Title An integrated scenario analysis for future zero-carbon energy system
Journal name International Journal of Energy Research   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1099-114X
Publication date 2015-06-10
Year available 2015
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1002/er.3313
Open Access Status Not Open Access
Volume 39
Issue 7
Start page 993
End page 1010
Total pages 18
Place of publication Chichester, West Sussex, United Kingdom
Publisher John Wiley & Sons
Collection year 2016
Language eng
Formatted abstract
An integrated scenario analysis methodology has been proposed for zero-carbon energy system in perspectives of social-economy, environment and technology. By using the methodology, service demands in all sectors were estimated based on social-economic data, and then the best technology and energy mixes were obtained to meet the service demands. The methodology was applied to Japan toward zero-carbon energy system out to the year of 2100, and three different scenarios of nuclear power development are considered in light of the Fukushima accident: (i) no further introduction of nuclear, (ii) fixed portion and (iii) no limit of nuclear. The results show that, zero-carbon energy scenario can be attained in the year 2100 when electricity will supply 75% of total energy consumption, and three power generation scenarios were proposed, 30% renewable and 70% gas-carbon capture and storage (CCS) in Scenario 1, respective one-third nuclear, renewable and gas-CCS in Scenario 2, and 60% nuclear power, 20% renewable and 10% gas-CCS in Scenario 3. Finally, Scenario 2 is rated as the most balanced scenario by putting emphasis on the availability of diversified power source, considering the inter-comparison of the three scenarios from the four aspects of cost, CO2 emission, risk and diversity.
Keyword Zero-carbon
Scenario analysis
Nuclear power
Integrated model
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status Non-UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Centre for Social Responsibility in Mining Publications
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Created: Mon, 05 Oct 2015, 14:38:39 EST by Dr Benjamin Craig Mclellan on behalf of Scholarly Communication and Digitisation Service