Prediction of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality at 10 years in the hypertensive aged population

Huynh, Quan L., Reid, Christopher M., Chowdhury, Enayet K., Huq, Molla M., Billah, Baki, Wing, Lindon M.H., Tonkin, Andrew M., Simons, Leon A., Nelson, Mark R., Beilin, Lawrence J., Jennings, Garry L., Johnston, Collin I., Macdonald, Graham J., Marley, John E., McNeil, John J., Morgan, Trefor O., Ryan, Philip, West, Malcolm J. and Wing, Lindon M.H. (2015) Prediction of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality at 10 years in the hypertensive aged population. American Journal of Hypertension, 28 5: 649-656. doi:10.1093/ajh/hpu213


Author Huynh, Quan L.
Reid, Christopher M.
Chowdhury, Enayet K.
Huq, Molla M.
Billah, Baki
Wing, Lindon M.H.
Tonkin, Andrew M.
Simons, Leon A.
Nelson, Mark R.
Beilin, Lawrence J.
Jennings, Garry L.
Johnston, Collin I.
Macdonald, Graham J.
Marley, John E.
McNeil, John J.
Morgan, Trefor O.
Ryan, Philip
West, Malcolm J.
Wing, Lindon M.H.
Title Prediction of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality at 10 years in the hypertensive aged population
Journal name American Journal of Hypertension   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1941-7225
0895-7061
Publication date 2015
Year available 2015
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1093/ajh/hpu213
Open Access Status Not Open Access
Volume 28
Issue 5
Start page 649
End page 656
Total pages 8
Place of publication Oxford, United Kingdom
Publisher Oxford University Press
Collection year 2016
Language eng
Formatted abstract
BACKGROUND We have previously developed a score for predicting cardiovascular events in the intermediate term in an elderly hypertensive population. In this study, we aimed to extend this work to predict 10-year cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in the hypertensive aged population.

METHODS Ten-year follow-up data of 5,378 hypertensive participants in the Second Australian National Blood Pressure study who were aged 65–84 years at baseline (1995–2001) and without prior cardiovascular events were analyzed. By using bootstrap resampling variable selection methods and comparing the Akaike and Bayesian information criterion and C-indices of the potential models, optimal and parsimonious multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were developed to predict 10-year cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. The models were validated using bootstrap validation method internally and using the Dubbo Study dataset externally.

RESULTS The final model for cardiovascular mortality included detrimental (age, smoking, diabetes, waist–hip ratio, and disadvantaged socioeconomic status) and protective factors (female sex, alcohol consumption, and physical activity). The final model for all-cause mortality also included detrimental (age, smoking, random blood glucose, and disadvantaged socioeconomic status) and protective factors (female sex, alcohol consumption, body mass index, and statin use). Blood pressure did not appear in either model in this patient group. The C-statistics for internal validation were 0.707 (cardiovascular mortality) and 0.678 (all-cause mortality), and for external validation were 0.729 (cardiovascular mortality) and 0.772 (all-cause mortality).

CONCLUSIONS These algorithms allow reliable estimation of 10-year risk of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality for hypertensive aged individuals.
Keyword Algorithms
Blood pressure
Cardiovascular disease
Death
Hypertension
Risk assessment
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Official 2016 Collection
School of Medicine Publications
 
Versions
Version Filter Type
Citation counts: TR Web of Science Citation Count  Cited 1 times in Thomson Reuters Web of Science Article | Citations
Scopus Citation Count Cited 3 times in Scopus Article | Citations
Google Scholar Search Google Scholar
Created: Tue, 29 Sep 2015, 08:12:28 EST by System User on behalf of Scholarly Communication and Digitisation Service