Accelerating seismic energy release and evolution of event time and size statistics: Results from two heterogeneous cellular automaton models

Jaume, SC, Weatherley, D and Mora, P (2000) Accelerating seismic energy release and evolution of event time and size statistics: Results from two heterogeneous cellular automaton models. Pure And Applied Geophysics, 157 : 2209-2226.

Author Jaume, SC
Weatherley, D
Mora, P
Title Accelerating seismic energy release and evolution of event time and size statistics: Results from two heterogeneous cellular automaton models
Journal name Pure And Applied Geophysics
Publication date 2000
Sub-type Article
Volume number 157
Start page 2209
End page 2226
Abstract The evolution of event time and size statistics in two heterogeneous cellular automaton models of earthquake behavior are studied and compared to the evolution of these quantities during observed periods of accelerating seismic energy release Drier to large earthquakes. The two automata have different nearest neighbor laws, one of which produces self-organized critical (SOC) behavior (PSD model) and the other which produces quasi-periodic large events (crack model). In the PSD model periods of accelerating energy release before large events are rare. In the crack model, many large events are preceded by periods of accelerating energy release. When compared to randomized event catalogs, accelerating energy release before large events occurs more often than random in the crack model but less often than random in the PSD model; it is easier to tell the crack and PSD model results apart from each other than to tell either model apart from a random catalog. The evolution of event sizes during the accelerating energy release sequences in all models is compared to that of observed sequences. The accelerating energy release sequences in the crack model consist of an increase in the rate of events of all sizes, consistent with observations from a small number of natural cases, however inconsistent with a larger number of cases in which there is an increase in the rate of only moderate-sized events. On average, no increase in the rate of events of any size is seen before large events in the PSD model.
Keyword Geochemistry & Geophysics
Accelerating Seismic Energy
Heterogeneous Cellular Automaton
Self-organized Criticality
Critical Point Hypothesis
Term Earthquake Prediction
Self-organized Criticality
To-failure Method
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status Unknown

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article
Collection: Earth Systems Science Computational Centre Publications
 
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Created: Mon, 13 Aug 2007, 12:10:20 EST