The sensitivity of the loa/unload response ratio and critical region selection before large earthquakes

Yu, Huai-zhong, Zhou, Faren, Cheng, Jia, Wan, Yong-ge and Zhang, Yong-xian (2015) The sensitivity of the loa/unload response ratio and critical region selection before large earthquakes. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 172 8: 2203-2214. doi:10.1007/s00024-014-0903-y


Author Yu, Huai-zhong
Zhou, Faren
Cheng, Jia
Wan, Yong-ge
Zhang, Yong-xian
Title The sensitivity of the loa/unload response ratio and critical region selection before large earthquakes
Journal name Pure and Applied Geophysics   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1420-9136
0033-4553
Publication date 2015-08-28
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1007/s00024-014-0903-y
Open Access Status Not Open Access
Volume 172
Issue 8
Start page 2203
End page 2214
Total pages 12
Place of publication Basel, Switzerland
Publisher Springer Basel
Collection year 2016
Language eng
Abstract Occurrence of a large earthquake could be predicted by anomalous temporal increase of the Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR). Previous studies have indicated that the stress field that existed before a large earthquake may have a strong influence on the evaluation of LURR. In this paper, we replace the circular region usually adopted in LURR practice with an area within which the tectonic stress change would mostly affect the Coulomb stress on a potential seismogenic fault of a future event. This algorithm is devised to increase the sensitivity of LURR to measure criticality of stress accumulation before a large earthquake. In the algorithm, we assess the stress change and identify the areas with increased Coulomb stress before an earthquake using a simple back-slip dislocation model of the event. Retrospective tests of this algorithm on some disastrous earthquakes that occurred in the Chinese mainland in recent years show remarkable enhancement of the LURR precursory anomalies. By using the hypothetical faults for the large earthquake prediction, we further illustrate that the new algorithm is more sensitive to detect future earthquake of a particular magnitude range and location than the circular region algorithm. Hence, where sufficient information of the regional fault tectonics is given, the Coulomb stress algorithm can be used to augment current LURR technique for seismic hazard estimation.
Keyword Coulomb stress
Critical region
Load/unload response ratio
Precursory anomaly
Sensitivity
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: School of Earth Sciences Publications
Official 2016 Collection
Earth Systems Science Computational Centre Publications
 
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