Marine extinction risk shaped by trait-environment interactions over 500 million years

Orzechowski, Emily A, Lockwood, Rowan, Byrnes, Jarrett E.K, Anderson, Sean C, Finnegan, Seth, Finkel, Zoe V, Harnik, Paul G, Lindberg, David R, Liow, Lee Hsiang, Lotze, Heike K, Mcclain, Craig R, Mcguire, Jenny L, O'Dea, Aaron, Pandolfi, John M, Simpson, Carl and Tittensor, Derek P (2015) Marine extinction risk shaped by trait-environment interactions over 500 million years. Global Change Biology, 21 10: 3595-3607. doi:10.1111/gcb.12963

Author Orzechowski, Emily A
Lockwood, Rowan
Byrnes, Jarrett E.K
Anderson, Sean C
Finnegan, Seth
Finkel, Zoe V
Harnik, Paul G
Lindberg, David R
Liow, Lee Hsiang
Lotze, Heike K
Mcclain, Craig R
Mcguire, Jenny L
O'Dea, Aaron
Pandolfi, John M
Simpson, Carl
Tittensor, Derek P
Title Marine extinction risk shaped by trait-environment interactions over 500 million years
Journal name Global Change Biology   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1365-2486
Publication date 2015
Year available 2015
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1111/gcb.12963
Open Access Status Not yet assessed
Volume 21
Issue 10
Start page 3595
End page 3607
Total pages 13
Place of publication Chichester, West Sussex, United Kingdom
Publisher Wiley-Blackwell Publishing
Collection year 2016
Language eng
Abstract Perhaps the most pressing issue in predicting biotic responses to present and future global change is understanding how environmental factors shape the relationship between ecological traits and extinction risk. The fossil record provides millions of years of insight into how extinction selectivity (i.e., differential extinction risk) is shaped by interactions between ecological traits and environmental conditions. Numerous paleontological studies have examined trait-based extinction selectivity; however, the extent to which these patterns are shaped by environmental conditions is poorly understood due to a lack of quantitative synthesis across studies. We conducted a meta-analysis of published studies on fossil marine bivalves and gastropods that span 458 million years to uncover how global environmental and geochemical changes covary with trait-based extinction selectivity. We focused on geographic range size and life habit (i.e., infaunal vs. epifaunal), two of the most important and commonly examined predictors of extinction selectivity. We used geochemical proxies related to global climate, as well as indicators of ocean acidification, to infer average global environmental conditions. Life-habit selectivity is weakly dependent on environmental conditions, with infaunal species relatively buffered from extinction during warmer climate states. In contrast, the odds of taxa with broad geographic ranges surviving an extinction (>2500 km for genera, >500 km for species) are on average three times greater than narrow-ranging taxa (estimate of odds ratio: 2.8, 95% confidence interval = 2.3–3.5), regardless of the prevailing global environmental conditions. The environmental independence of geographic range size extinction selectivity emphasizes the critical role of geographic range size in setting conservation priorities.
Keyword Differential extinction risk
Extinction selectivity
Geographic range
Life habit
Mass extinction
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Official 2016 Collection
School of Biological Sciences Publications
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