Frost trends and their estimated impact on yield in the Australian wheatbelt

Zheng, Bangyou, Chapman, Scott C., Christopher, Jack T., Frederiks, Troy M. and Chenu, Karine (2015) Frost trends and their estimated impact on yield in the Australian wheatbelt. Journal of Experimental Botany, 66 12: 3611-3623. doi:10.1093/jxb/erv163


Author Zheng, Bangyou
Chapman, Scott C.
Christopher, Jack T.
Frederiks, Troy M.
Chenu, Karine
Title Frost trends and their estimated impact on yield in the Australian wheatbelt
Journal name Journal of Experimental Botany   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0022-0957
1460-2431
Publication date 2015-06
Year available 2015
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1093/jxb/erv163
Open Access Status DOI
Volume 66
Issue 12
Start page 3611
End page 3623
Total pages 13
Place of publication Oxford, United Kingdom
Publisher Oxford University Press
Collection year 2016
Language eng
Abstract Radiant spring frosts occurring during reproductive developmental stages can result in catastrophic yield loss for wheat producers. To better understand the spatial and temporal variability of frost, the occurrence and impact of frost events on rain-fed wheat production was estimated across the Australian wheatbelt for 1957–2013 using a 0.05 ° gridded weather data set. Simulated yield outcomes at 60 key locations were compared with those for virtual genotypes with different levels of frost tolerance. Over the last six decades, more frost events, later last frost day, and a significant increase in frost impact on yield were found in certain regions of the Australian wheatbelt, in particular in the South-East and West. Increasing trends in frost-related yield losses were simulated in regions where no significant trend of frost occurrence was observed, due to higher mean temperatures accelerating crop development and causing sensitive post-heading stages to occur earlier, during the frost risk period. Simulations indicated that with frost-tolerant lines the mean national yield could be improved by up to 20% through (i) reduced frost damage (~10% improvement) and (ii) the ability to use earlier sowing dates (adding a further 10% improvement). In the simulations, genotypes with an improved frost tolerance to temperatures 1 °C lower than the current 0 °C reference provided substantial benefit in most cropping regions, while greater tolerance (to 3 °C lower temperatures) brought further benefits in the East. The results indicate that breeding for improved reproductive frost tolerance should remain a priority for the Australian wheat industry, despite warming climates.
Keyword Breeding
Climate change
Crop adaptation
Crop modelling
Ideotype
Post-head-emergence frost
Reproductive frost
Spring radiant frost
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Queensland Alliance for Agriculture and Food Innovation
Official 2016 Collection
 
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Citation counts: TR Web of Science Citation Count  Cited 11 times in Thomson Reuters Web of Science Article | Citations
Scopus Citation Count Cited 13 times in Scopus Article | Citations
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