Regardless of the recognition of Indonesia‟s rice production vulnerability to climate change, there still remains limited literature relating to the quantitative analysis that combines national and farm level analysis of this issue. This study assesses the impact of climate change on rice production in Indonesia, and analyses the impact and adaptation strategies at farm levels. A survey to 67 rice farmers was conducted in the rice farmer‟s community in the district of Indramayu, one of largest rice producing areas in Indonesia. The results from Cobb Douglass regression found that that the increase in the average minimum temperature between 1962 and 2012 has had very significant negative effects on rice production. It implies that an average of 1% increase in the average daily minimum temperature would have potentially caused a decrease rice production by 4.46 %.
Climate change also took place in Indramayu during the period 1990-2012, with an increasing trend of average daily temperature and decreasing precipitation. Farmer perceptions were the same for temperature but not for precipitation. Survey results shows that average total farm loss in response to climate change was estimated at 27% of total production, resulting in an average drop in household rice self-sufficiency of 43%. Farmers with very low farm size tend to have greater loss, while farmers who access agricultural extension are having the lower loss. Climate training, access to credit, agricultural extension and assets ownership are factors that may significantly reduce loss. Under climate change conditions, there are significant relationships between farm‟s net revenue with climate information, access to agricultural extension, farm size, tenure status (land ownership) and asset ownership. Farmers who access agricultural extension, or, farmers who have greater assets, or farmers with higher farm size are having statistically higher net revenue when compared to other groups.
The MNL model was used to examine the determinants of adaptation choices. Five main adaptation types were assessed: changes in rice varieties grown, changing (adjustment) schedule, direct seed, irrigation and water management, and adding more chemical pesticides and fertilizer. The Small Hsiao test was conducted, and it is concluded that the IIA assumption is not violated. The MNL result shows there are 14 variables out of 15 variables are significantly affect the probability of farmers in choosing one of 5 main adaptations. Amongst those 14 significant variables, to promote a more sustainable adaptation implementation, sustainable agriculture training, farm size and access to irrigation are the key variables. While the organisation membership and agricultural extension variables also remain important to reduce the implementation of less sustainable adaptation practices.
Increasing investment in research, technology and infrastructure; promote integration and coordination among stakeholders; building farmers resilience, and food diversification implementation are general national climate change policy that likely may reduce farmer vulnerability and reducing adverse impact of climate change to the state of the nation‟s food security. More specifically, the policy implications based on farm level analysis results include, amongst other thing, increasing research and investment to develop better adapted rice varieties, develop and implement a better and more accessible climate information system including conducting more climate change training, conducting an effective and transparent agricultural extension/input/subsidy/credit distribution, evaluate and develop a better irrigation and drainage system, creating more rural financial institutions to provide low-cost credit for small farmers, involving small holder farmer to a more profitable market chain, promoting sustainable agriculture farming practice and improving the adaptation determinants to increase farmers‟ adaptation. Lastly, law enforcement related to rice field conversion, land rights protection and access for small holder farmers is important.