Assessing the risk of Nipah virus establishment in Australian flying-foxes

Roche, S. E., Costard, S., Meers, J., Field, H. E. and Breed, A. C. (2015) Assessing the risk of Nipah virus establishment in Australian flying-foxes. Epidemiology and Infection, 143 10: 2213-2226. doi:10.1017/S0950268813003336

Author Roche, S. E.
Costard, S.
Meers, J.
Field, H. E.
Breed, A. C.
Title Assessing the risk of Nipah virus establishment in Australian flying-foxes
Journal name Epidemiology and Infection   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1469-4409
Publication date 2015-07
Year available 2014
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1017/S0950268813003336
Open Access Status
Volume 143
Issue 10
Start page 2213
End page 2226
Total pages 14
Place of publication Cambridge, United Kingdom
Publisher Cambridge University Press
Collection year 2016
Language eng
Formatted abstract
Nipah virus (NiV) is a recently emerged zoonotic virus that causes severe disease in humans. The reservoir hosts for NiV, bats of the genus Pteropus (known as flying-foxes) are found across the Asia-Pacific including Australia. While NiV has not been detected in Australia, evidence for NiV infection has been found in flying-foxes in some of Australia's closest neighbours. A qualitative risk assessment was undertaken to assess the risk of NiV establishing in Australian flying-foxes through flying-fox movements from nearby regions. Events surrounding the emergence of new diseases are typically uncertain and in this study an expert opinion workshop was used to address gaps in knowledge. Given the difficulties in combining expert opinion, five different combination methods were analysed to assess their influence on the risk outcome. Under the baseline scenario where the median was used to combine opinions, the risk was estimated to be very low. However, this risk increased when the mean and linear opinion pooling combination methods were used. This assessment highlights the effects that different methods for combining expert opinion have on final risk estimates and the caution needed when interpreting these outcomes given the high degree of uncertainty in expert opinion. This work has provided a flexible model framework for assessing the risk of NiV establishment in Australian flying-foxes through bat movements which can be updated when new data become available.
Keyword Expert opinion
Nipah virus
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ
Additional Notes Published online 4 February 2014.

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Official 2016 Collection
School of Veterinary Science Publications
Version Filter Type
Citation counts: TR Web of Science Citation Count  Cited 0 times in Thomson Reuters Web of Science Article
Scopus Citation Count Cited 0 times in Scopus Article
Google Scholar Search Google Scholar
Created: Tue, 23 Jun 2015, 01:56:49 EST by System User on behalf of Scholarly Communication and Digitisation Service