Adapting environmental management to uncertain but inevitable change

Nicol, Sam, Fuller, Richard A., Iwamura, Takuya and Chades, Iadine (2015) Adapting environmental management to uncertain but inevitable change. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 282 1808: 1-8. doi:10.1098/rspb.2014.2984


Author Nicol, Sam
Fuller, Richard A.
Iwamura, Takuya
Chades, Iadine
Title Adapting environmental management to uncertain but inevitable change
Journal name Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1471-2954
0962-8452
Publication date 2015-06
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1098/rspb.2014.2984
Open Access Status Not yet assessed
Volume 282
Issue 1808
Start page 1
End page 8
Total pages 8
Place of publication London, United Kingdom
Publisher The Royal Society
Collection year 2016
Language eng
Abstract Implementation of adaptation actions to protect biodiversity is limited by uncertainty about the future. One reason for this is the fear of making the wrong decisions caused by the myriad future scenarios presented to decision-makers. We propose an adaptive management (AM) method for optimally managing a population under uncertain and changing habitat conditions. Our approach incorporates multiple future scenarios and continually learns the best management strategy from observations, even as conditions change. We demonstrate the performance of our AM approach by applying it to the spatial management of migratory shorebird habitats on the East Asian–Australasian flyway, predicted to be severely impacted by future sea-level rise. By accounting for non-stationary dynamics, our solution protects 25 000 more birds per year than the current best stationary approach. Our approach can be applied to many ecological systems that require efficient adaptation strategies for an uncertain future.
Keyword Adaptation
Adaptive management
Climate change
East Asian–Australasian flyway
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Official 2016 Collection
School of Biological Sciences Publications
 
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