Integrating social–ecological vulnerability assessments with climate forecasts to improve local climate adaptation planning for coral reef fisheries in Papua New Guinea

Maina, Joseph, Kithiia, Justus, Cinner, Josh, Neale, Ezra, Noble, Sylvia, Charles, Daniel and Watson, James E. M. (2015) Integrating social–ecological vulnerability assessments with climate forecasts to improve local climate adaptation planning for coral reef fisheries in Papua New Guinea. Regional Environmental Change, 16 3: 881-891. doi:10.1007/s10113-015-0807-0


Author Maina, Joseph
Kithiia, Justus
Cinner, Josh
Neale, Ezra
Noble, Sylvia
Charles, Daniel
Watson, James E. M.
Title Integrating social–ecological vulnerability assessments with climate forecasts to improve local climate adaptation planning for coral reef fisheries in Papua New Guinea
Journal name Regional Environmental Change   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1436-378X
1436-3798
Publication date 2015-05-12
Year available 2015
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1007/s10113-015-0807-0
Open Access Status
Volume 16
Issue 3
Start page 881
End page 891
Total pages 11
Place of publication Heidelberg, Germany
Publisher Springer Verlag
Collection year 2016
Language eng
Abstract A major gap exists in integrating climate projections and social–ecological vulnerability analyses at scales that matter, which has affected local-scale adaptation planning and actions to date. We address this gap by providing a novel methodology that integrates information on: (i) the expected future climate, including climate-related extreme events, at the village level; (ii) an ecological assessment of the impacts of these climate forecasts on coral reefs; and (iii) the social adaptive capacity of the artisanal fishers, to create an integrated vulnerability assessment on coastal communities in five villages in Papua New Guinea. We show that, despite relatively proximate geographies, there are substantial differences in both the predicted extreme rainfall and temperature events and the social adaptive capacity among the five fishing-dependent communities, meaning that they have likely different vulnerabilities to future climate change. Our methodology shows that it is possible to capture social information and integrate this with climate and ecological modeling in ways that are best suited to address the impacts of climate-mediated environmental changes currently underway across different scales.
Keyword Climate change
Adaptation planning
Socioecological vulnerability
Coral reef fisheries
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Management Publications
CEED Publications
Official 2016 Collection
 
Versions
Version Filter Type
Citation counts: TR Web of Science Citation Count  Cited 1 times in Thomson Reuters Web of Science Article | Citations
Scopus Citation Count Cited 1 times in Scopus Article | Citations
Google Scholar Search Google Scholar
Created: Tue, 26 May 2015, 00:29:50 EST by System User on behalf of Scholarly Communication and Digitisation Service