The Monte Carlo simulation of correlated monthly rainfall and evaporation data

Napier-Munn, Timothy J., Meyer, D.H. and Stratford, K.J. (1978) The Monte Carlo simulation of correlated monthly rainfall and evaporation data. South African Geographical Journal, 60 1: 41-62. doi:10.1080/03736245.1978.10559590

Author Napier-Munn, Timothy J.
Meyer, D.H.
Stratford, K.J.
Title The Monte Carlo simulation of correlated monthly rainfall and evaporation data
Journal name South African Geographical Journal   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0373-6245
Publication date 1978
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1080/03736245.1978.10559590
Open Access Status
Volume 60
Issue 1
Start page 41
End page 62
Total pages 22
Place of publication Abingdon, Oxon, United Kingdom
Publisher Routledge
Language eng
Formatted abstract
A method is presented of generating monthly rainfall and evaporation data for a particular area, using statistical distributions fitted to historical data, and a Monte Carlo simulation procedure; it is assumed that there is no long-term trend in either quantity. The distribution of monthly rainfall is described by the Weibull distribution, and that of monthly evaporation by the two-parameter log-normal distribution. For the available data, the correlation between evaporation and rainfall in any one month, and the correlation between the evaporation in any two successive months, was found to be significant. The simulated data is therefore generated using random numbers from appropriately correlated bivariate normal distributions, which are then inserted into standard equations to determine rainfall and evaporation for the month. The method, which has been programmed for the computer simulation of systems incorporating a rainfall/evaporation component, is shown to generate both monthly and annual rainfall and evaporation characteristics very close to those observed in practice. In particular, simulated annual rainfall and evaporation are shown to be normally distributed, as has been demonstrated in practice, and as one would expect from application of the central limit theorem; in addition, the simulated annual rainfall is cyclic in nature, a feature also observed in practice.
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status Non-UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collection: Julius Kruttschnitt Mineral Research Centre Publications
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Created: Thu, 09 Apr 2015, 09:30:28 EST by Karen Holtham on behalf of Julius Kruttschnitt Mineral Research Centre