The potential distribution of invading Helicoverpa armigera in North America: Is it just a matter of time?

Kriticos, Darren J., Ota, Noboru, Hutchison, William D., Beddow, Jason, Walsh, Tom, Tay, Wee Tek, Borchert, Daniel M., Paula-Moreas, Silvana V., Czepak, Cecilia and Zalucki, Myron P. (2015) The potential distribution of invading Helicoverpa armigera in North America: Is it just a matter of time?. PLoS One, 10 3: . doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0119618


Author Kriticos, Darren J.
Ota, Noboru
Hutchison, William D.
Beddow, Jason
Walsh, Tom
Tay, Wee Tek
Borchert, Daniel M.
Paula-Moreas, Silvana V.
Czepak, Cecilia
Zalucki, Myron P.
Title The potential distribution of invading Helicoverpa armigera in North America: Is it just a matter of time?
Journal name PLoS One   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1932-6203
Publication date 2015-03-18
Year available 2015
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1371/journal.pone.0119618
Open Access Status DOI
Volume 10
Issue 3
Total pages 24
Place of publication San Francisco, CA United States
Publisher Public Library of Science
Collection year 2016
Language eng
Formatted abstract
Helicoverpa armigera has recently invaded South and Central America, and appears to be spreading rapidly. We update a previously developed potential distribution model to highlight the global invasion threat, with emphasis on the risks to the United States. The continued range expansion of H. armigera in Central America is likely to change the invasion threat it poses to North America qualitatively, making natural dispersal from either the Caribbean islands or Mexico feasible. To characterise the threat posed by H. armigera, we collated the value of the major host crops in the United States growing within its modelled potential range, including that area where it could expand its range during favourable seasons. We found that the annual value of crops that would be exposed to H. armigera totalled approximately US$78 billion p.a., with US$843 million p.a. worth growing in climates that are optimal for the pest. Elsewhere, H. armigera has developed broad-spectrum pesticide resistance; meaning that if it invades the United States, protecting these crops from significant production impacts could be challenging. It may be cost-effective to undertake pre-emptive biosecurity activities such as slowing the spread of H. armigera throughout the Americas, improving the system for detecting H. armigera, and methods for rapid identification, especially distinguishing between H. armigera, H. zea and potential H. armigera x H. zea hybrids. Developing biological control programs, especially using inundative techniques with entomopathogens and parasitoids could slow the spread of H. armigera, and reduce selective pressure for pesticide resistance. The rapid spread of H. armigera through South America into Central America suggests that its spread into North America is a matter of time. The likely natural dispersal routes preclude aggressive incursion responses, emphasizing the value of preparatory communication with agricultural producers in areas suitable for invasion by H. armigera.
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Official 2016 Collection
School of Biological Sciences Publications
 
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