What will it take to get to under 5% smoking prevalence by 2025? Modelling in a country with a smokefree goal

Ikeda, Takayoshi, Cobiac, Linda, Wilson, Nick, Carter, Kristie and Blakely, Tony (2015) What will it take to get to under 5% smoking prevalence by 2025? Modelling in a country with a smokefree goal. Tobacco Control, 24 2: 139-145. doi:10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2013-051196


Author Ikeda, Takayoshi
Cobiac, Linda
Wilson, Nick
Carter, Kristie
Blakely, Tony
Title What will it take to get to under 5% smoking prevalence by 2025? Modelling in a country with a smokefree goal
Journal name Tobacco Control   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1468-3318
0964-4563
Publication date 2015
Year available 2013
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2013-051196
Open Access Status
Volume 24
Issue 2
Start page 139
End page 145
Total pages 7
Place of publication London, United Kingdom
Publisher BMJ Publishing Group
Collection year 2016
Language eng
Formatted abstract
Background New Zealand has a goal of becoming a smokefree nation by the year 2025. Smoking prevalence in 2012 was 17%, but is over 40% for Māori (indigenous New Zealanders). We forecast the prevalence in 2025 under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, and determined what the initiation and cessation rates would have to be to achieve a <5% prevalence.

Methods A dynamic model was developed using Census and Health Survey data from 1981 to 2012 to calculate changes in initiation by age 20 years, and net annual cessation rates, by sex, age, ethnic group and time period. Similar parameters were also calculated from a panel study for sensitivity analyses. ‘Forecasts’ used these parameters, and other scenarios, applied to the 2011–2012 prevalence.

Findings Since 2002–2003, prevalence at age 20 years has decreased annually by 3.1% (95% uncertainty interval 0.8% to 5.7%) and 1.1% (−1.2% to 3.2%) for non-Māori males and females, and by 4.7% (2.2% to 7.1%) and 0.0% (−2.2% to 1.8%) for Māori, respectively. Annual net cessation rates from the dynamic model ranged from −3.0% to 6.1% across demographic groups, and from 3.0% to 6.0% in the panel study. Under BAU, smoking prevalence is forecast to be 11% and 9% for non-Māori males and females by 2025, and 30% and 37% for Māori, respectively. Achieving <5% by 2025 requires net cessation rates to increase to 10% for non-Māori and 20% for Māori, accompanied by halving or quartering of initiation rates.
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Official 2016 Collection
School of Public Health Publications
 
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