Sensitivity of terrestrial precipitation trends to the structural evolution of sea surface temperatures

Anderson, Bruce T., Lintner, Benjamin R., Langenbrunner, Baird, Neelin, J. David, Hawkins, Ed and Syktus, Jozef (2015) Sensitivity of terrestrial precipitation trends to the structural evolution of sea surface temperatures. Geophysical Research Letters, 42 4: 1190-1196. doi:10.1002/2014GL062593

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Author Anderson, Bruce T.
Lintner, Benjamin R.
Langenbrunner, Baird
Neelin, J. David
Hawkins, Ed
Syktus, Jozef
Title Sensitivity of terrestrial precipitation trends to the structural evolution of sea surface temperatures
Journal name Geophysical Research Letters   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1944-8007
0094-8276
Publication date 2015-02-28
Year available 2015
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1002/2014GL062593
Open Access Status
Volume 42
Issue 4
Start page 1190
End page 1196
Total pages 6
Place of publication Hoboken, NJ United States
Publisher Wiley-Blackwell Publishing
Collection year 2016
Language eng
Abstract Pronounced intermodel differences in the projected response of land surface precipitation (LSP) to future anthropogenic forcing remain in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 model integrations. A large fraction of the intermodel spread in projected LSP trends is demonstrated here to be associated with systematic differences in simulated sea surface temperature (SST) trends, especially the representation of changes in (i) the interhemispheric SST gradient and (ii) the tropical Pacific SSTs. By contrast, intermodel differences in global mean SST, representative of differing global climate sensitivities, exert limited systematic influence on LSP patterns. These results highlight the importance to regional terrestrial precipitation changes of properly simulating the spatial distribution of large-scale, remote changes as reflected in the SST response to increasing greenhouse gases. Moreover, they provide guidance regarding which region-specific precipitation projections may be potentially better constrained for use in climate change impact assessments.
Keyword Anthropogenic change
CMIP5
Intermodel differences
Principal uncertainty pattern analysis
Sea surface temperature
Terrestrial precipitation
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Management Publications
Official 2016 Collection
 
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