Systematic and day-to-day effects of chemical-derived population estimates on wastewater-based drug epidemiology

Lai, Foon Yin, Anuj, Shalona, Bruno, Raimondo, Carter, Steve, Gartner, Coral, Hall, Wayne, Kirkbride, K. Paul, Mueller, Jochen F., O'Brien, Jake W., Prichard, Jeremy, Thai, Phong K and Ort, Christoph (2015) Systematic and day-to-day effects of chemical-derived population estimates on wastewater-based drug epidemiology. Environmental Science and Technology, 49 2: 999-1008. doi:10.1021/es503474d

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Author Lai, Foon Yin
Anuj, Shalona
Bruno, Raimondo
Carter, Steve
Gartner, Coral
Hall, Wayne
Kirkbride, K. Paul
Mueller, Jochen F.
O'Brien, Jake W.
Prichard, Jeremy
Thai, Phong K
Ort, Christoph
Title Systematic and day-to-day effects of chemical-derived population estimates on wastewater-based drug epidemiology
Journal name Environmental Science and Technology   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1520-5851
0013-936X
Publication date 2015-01-20
Year available 2014
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1021/es503474d
Volume 49
Issue 2
Start page 999
End page 1008
Total pages 10
Place of publication Washington, DC, United States
Publisher American Chemical Society
Collection year 2015
Language eng
Formatted abstract
Population size is crucial when estimating population-normalized drug consumption (PNDC) from wastewater-based drug epidemiology (WBDE). Three conceptually different population estimates can be used: de jure (common census, residence), de facto (all persons within a sewer catchment), and chemical loads (contributors to the sampled wastewater). De facto and chemical loads will be the same where all households contribute to a central sewer system without wastewater loss. This study explored the feasibility of determining a de facto population and its effect on estimating PNDC in an urban community over an extended period. Drugs and other chemicals were analyzed in 311 daily composite wastewater samples. The daily estimated de facto population (using chemical loads) was on average 32% higher than the de jure population. Consequently, using the latter would systemically overestimate PNDC by 22%. However, the relative day-to-day pattern of drug consumption was similar regardless of the type of normalization as daily illicit drug loads appeared to vary substantially more than the population. Using chemical loads population, we objectively quantified the total methodological uncertainty of PNDC and reduced it by a factor of 2. Our study illustrated the potential benefits of using chemical loads population for obtaining more robust PNDC data in WBDE.
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Institutional Status UQ

 
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