Rain and the democratic window of opportunity

Brückner, Markus and Ciccone, Antonio (2011) Rain and the democratic window of opportunity. Econometrica, 79 3: 923-947. doi:10.3982/ECTA8183

Author Brückner, Markus
Ciccone, Antonio
Title Rain and the democratic window of opportunity
Journal name Econometrica   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0012-9682
Publication date 2011-05
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.3982/ECTA8183
Open Access Status Not Open Access
Volume 79
Issue 3
Start page 923
End page 947
Total pages 25
Place of publication Chichester, United Kingdom
Publisher Wiley-Blackwell Publishing
Language eng
Formatted abstract
We show that democratic change may be triggered by transitory economic shocks. Our approach uses within-country variation in rainfall as a source of transitory shocks to sub-Saharan African economies. We find that negative rainfall shocks are followed by significant improvement in democratic institutions. This result is consistent with the economic approach to political transitions, where transitory negative shocks can open a window of opportunity for democratic improvement. Instrumental variables estimates indicate that following a transitory negative income shock of 1 percent, democracy scores improve by 0.9 percentage points and the probability of a democratic transition increases by 1.3 percentage points.
Keyword Democratization
Transitory economic shocks
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status Non-UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collection: School of Economics Publications
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Citation counts: TR Web of Science Citation Count  Cited 72 times in Thomson Reuters Web of Science Article | Citations
Scopus Citation Count Cited 79 times in Scopus Article | Citations
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Created: Thu, 05 Feb 2015, 17:13:34 EST by Alys Hohnen on behalf of School of Economics