Oil price shocks, income, and democracy

Brueckner, Markus, Ciccone, Antonio and Tesei, Andrea (2012) Oil price shocks, income, and democracy. Review of Economics and Statistics, 94 2: 389-399. doi:10.1162/REST_a_00201

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Author Brueckner, Markus
Ciccone, Antonio
Tesei, Andrea
Title Oil price shocks, income, and democracy
Journal name Review of Economics and Statistics   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0034-6535
Publication date 2012-05
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1162/REST_a_00201
Open Access Status File (Publisher version)
Volume 94
Issue 2
Start page 389
End page 399
Total pages 11
Place of publication Cambridge, MA, United States
Publisher M I T Press
Language eng
Abstract We examine the effect of oil price fluctuations on democratic institutions over the 1960–2007 period. We also exploit the very persistent response of income to oil price fluctuations to study the effect of persistent (oil-price-driven) income shocks on democracy. Our results indicate that countries with greater net oil exports over GDP see improvements in democratic institutions following upturns in international oil prices. We estimate that a 1 percentage point increase in per capita GDP growth due to a positive oil price shock increases the Polity democracy score by around 0.2 percentage points on impact and by around 2 percentage points in the long run. The effect on the probability of a democratic transition is around 0.4 percentage points.
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status Non-UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collection: School of Economics Publications
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Citation counts: TR Web of Science Citation Count  Cited 18 times in Thomson Reuters Web of Science Article | Citations
Scopus Citation Count Cited 23 times in Scopus Article | Citations
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Created: Thu, 05 Feb 2015, 16:59:30 EST by Alys Hohnen on behalf of School of Economics