How much is new information worth? Evaluating the financial benefit of resolving management uncertainty

Maxwell, Sean L., Rhodes, Jonathan R., Runge, Michael C., Possingham, Hugh P., Ng, Chooi Fei and McDonald-Madden, Eve (2015) How much is new information worth? Evaluating the financial benefit of resolving management uncertainty. Journal of Applied Ecology, 52 1: 12-20. doi:10.1111/1365-2664.12373


Author Maxwell, Sean L.
Rhodes, Jonathan R.
Runge, Michael C.
Possingham, Hugh P.
Ng, Chooi Fei
McDonald-Madden, Eve
Title How much is new information worth? Evaluating the financial benefit of resolving management uncertainty
Journal name Journal of Applied Ecology   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1365-2664
0021-8901
Publication date 2015-02-01
Year available 2014
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1111/1365-2664.12373
Volume 52
Issue 1
Start page 12
End page 20
Total pages 9
Place of publication Oxford United Kingdom
Publisher Wiley-Blackwell Publishing
Collection year 2015
Language eng
Formatted abstract
1. Conservation decision-makers face a trade-off between spending limited funds on direct management action, or gaining new information in an attempt to improve management performance in the future. Value-of-information analysis can help to resolve this trade-off by evaluating how much management performance could improve if new information was gained. Value-of-information analysis has been used extensively in other disciplines, but there are only a few examples where it has informed conservation planning, none of which have used it to evaluate the financial value of gaining new information.

2. We address this gap by applying value-of-information analysis to the management of a declining koala Phascolarctos cinereus population. Decision-makers responsible for managing this population face uncertainty about survival and fecundity rates, and how habitat cover affects mortality threats. The value of gaining new information about these uncertainties was calculated using a deterministic matrix model of the koala population to find the expected population growth rate if koala mortality threats were optimally managed under alternative model hypotheses, which represented the uncertainties faced by koala managers.

3. Gaining new information about survival and fecundity rates and the effect of habitat cover on mortality threats will do little to improve koala management. Across a range of management budgets, no more than 1·7% of the budget should be spent on resolving these uncertainties.

4. The value of information was low because optimal management decisions were not sensitive to the uncertainties we considered. Decisions were instead driven by a substantial difference in the cost efficiency of management actions. The value of information was up to forty times higher when the cost efficiencies of different koala management actions were similar.

5. Synthesis and applications. This study evaluates the ecological and financial benefits of gaining new information to inform a conservation problem. We also theoretically demonstrate that the value of reducing uncertainty is highest when it is not clear which management action is the most cost efficient. This study will help expand the use of value-of-information analyses in conservation by providing a cost efficiency metric by which to evaluate research or monitoring.
Keyword Action
Budget
Conservation
Cost efficiency
Decision
Koala
Phascolarctos cinereus
Queensland
Strategy
Value-of-information analysis
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ
Additional Notes Published online ahead of print 10 Dec 2014

 
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