National spatial and temporal patterns of notified dengue cases, Colombia 2007-2010

Restrepo, Angela Cadavid, Baker, Peter and Clements, Archie C. A. (2014) National spatial and temporal patterns of notified dengue cases, Colombia 2007-2010. Tropical Medicine & International Health, 19 7: 863-871. doi:10.1111/tmi.12325

Author Restrepo, Angela Cadavid
Baker, Peter
Clements, Archie C. A.
Title National spatial and temporal patterns of notified dengue cases, Colombia 2007-2010
Journal name Tropical Medicine & International Health   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1360-2276
Publication date 2014-07
Year available 2014
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1111/tmi.12325
Open Access Status
Volume 19
Issue 7
Start page 863
End page 871
Total pages 9
Place of publication West Sussex United Kingdom
Publisher Wiley-Blackwell Publishing
Collection year 2015
Language eng
Formatted abstract
To explore the variation in the spatial distribution of notified dengue cases in Colombia from January 2007 to December 2010 and examine associations between the disease and selected environmental risk factors.


Data on the number of notified dengue cases in Colombia were obtained from the National Institute of Health (Instituto Nacional de Salud – INS) for the period 1 January 2007 through 31 December 2010. Data on environmental factors were collected from the Worldclim website. A Bayesian spatio-temporal conditional autoregressive model was used to quantify the relationship between monthly dengue cases and temperature, precipitation and elevation.

Monthly dengue counts decreased by 18% (95% credible interval (CrI): 17–19%) in 2008 and increased by 30% (95% CrI: 28–31%) and 326% (95% CrI: 322–331%) in 2009 and 2010, respectively, compared to 2007. Additionally, there was a significant, nonlinear effect of monthly average precipitation.

The results highlight the role of environmental risk factors in determining the spatial of dengue and show how these factors can be used to develop and refine preventive approaches for dengue in Colombia.
Keyword Spatial analysis
Bayesian analysis
Communicable diseases
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Official 2015 Collection
School of Public Health Publications
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