Methods to elicit experts’ beliefs over uncertain quantities: application to a cost effectiveness transition model of negative pressure wound therapy for severe pressure ulceration

Soares, Marta O., Bojke, Laura, Dumville, Jo, Iglesias, Cynthia, Cullum, Nicky and Claxton, Karl (2011) Methods to elicit experts’ beliefs over uncertain quantities: application to a cost effectiveness transition model of negative pressure wound therapy for severe pressure ulceration. Statistics In Medicine, 30 19: 2363-2380. doi:10.1002/sim.4288


Author Soares, Marta O.
Bojke, Laura
Dumville, Jo
Iglesias, Cynthia
Cullum, Nicky
Claxton, Karl
Title Methods to elicit experts’ beliefs over uncertain quantities: application to a cost effectiveness transition model of negative pressure wound therapy for severe pressure ulceration
Journal name Statistics In Medicine   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1097-0258
0277-6715
Publication date 2011-08
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1002/sim.4288
Open Access Status
Volume 30
Issue 19
Start page 2363
End page 2380
Total pages 18
Place of publication Chichester, West Sussex, United Kingdom
Publisher John Wiley & Sons
Language eng
Formatted abstract
We can use decision models to estimate cost effectiveness, quantify uncertainty regarding the adoption decision and provide estimates of the value of further research. In many cases, the existence of only limited data with which to populate a decision model can mean that a cost-effectiveness analysis either does not proceed or may misrepresent the degree of uncertainty associated with model inputs. An example is the case of negative pressure wound therapy (NPWT) used to treat severe pressure ulceration, for which the evidence base is limited and sparse. There is, however, substantial practical experience of using this treatment and its comparators. We can capture this knowledge quantitatively to inform a cost-effectiveness model by eliciting beliefs from experts.

This paper describes the design and conduct of an elicitation exercise to generate estimates of multiple uncertain model inputs and validate analytical assumptions for a decision model on the use of NPWT. In designing the exercise, the primary focus was the use of elicitation to inform decision models (multistate models), where representations of uncertain beliefs need to be probabilistically coherent. This paper demonstrates that it is feasible to collect formally elicited evidence to inform decision models.
Keyword Cost-effectiveness
Expert
Elicitation
Decision analytic models
Negative pressure wound therapy
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status Non-UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collection: School of Nursing, Midwifery and Social Work Publications
 
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Created: Wed, 21 May 2014, 13:06:33 EST by Vicki Percival on behalf of School of Nursing, Midwifery and Social Work