The complexity of predicting climate-induced ecological impacts

Mustin, Karen, Sutherland, William J. and Gill, Jennifer A. (2007) The complexity of predicting climate-induced ecological impacts. Climate Research, 35 1-2: 165-175. doi:10.3354/cr00723

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Author Mustin, Karen
Sutherland, William J.
Gill, Jennifer A.
Title The complexity of predicting climate-induced ecological impacts
Journal name Climate Research   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0936-577X
1616-1572
Publication date 2007-12-01
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.3354/cr00723
Open Access Status File (Publisher version)
Volume 35
Issue 1-2
Start page 165
End page 175
Total pages 11
Place of publication Oldendorf, Germany
Publisher Inter-Research
Language eng
Abstract The anticipated future increases in global surface temperatures are likely to have major impacts on the distribution of species. Predicting future species' distributions is a key area of importance in research, which is largely being addressed through the use of climate envelope models, While climate envelope models may indicate the broad direction of likely changes in distribution, they fail to incorporate the non-climatic factors that are important determinants of species' distributions within their current range, which may mean that the observed response will differ greatly from these predictions. When considering specific species, these ecological details are likely to be extremely important, but their inclusion in predictive models is difficult. We illustrate the complexities of unravelling climate impacts on species distribution and population size using migratory shorebirds as an example.
Keyword Distribution
Migration
Population processes
Range size
Shorebirds
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status Non-UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collection: School of Biological Sciences Publications
 
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