Estimating uncertainty in multivariate responses to selection

Stinchcombe, John R., Simonsen, Anna K. and Blows, Mark W. (2014) Estimating uncertainty in multivariate responses to selection. Evolution, 68 4: 1188-1196. doi:10.1111/evo.12321


Author Stinchcombe, John R.
Simonsen, Anna K.
Blows, Mark W.
Title Estimating uncertainty in multivariate responses to selection
Journal name Evolution   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1558-5646
0014-3820
Publication date 2014-04
Year available 2013
Sub-type Letter to editor, brief commentary or brief communication
DOI 10.1111/evo.12321
Open Access Status
Volume 68
Issue 4
Start page 1188
End page 1196
Total pages 9
Place of publication Oxford, United Kingdom
Publisher Wiley-Blackwell
Collection year 2014
Language eng
Abstract Predicting the responses to natural selection is one of the key goals of evolutionary biology. Two of the challenges in fulfilling this goal have been the realization that many estimates of natural selection might be highly biased by environmentally induced covariances between traits and fitness, and that many estimated responses to selection do not incorporate or report uncertainty in the estimates. Here we describe the application of a framework that blends the merits of the Robertson-Price Identity approach and the multivariate breeder's equation to address these challenges. The approach allows genetic covariance matrices, selection differentials, selection gradients, and responses to selection to be estimated without environmentally induced bias, direct and indirect selection and responses to selection to be distinguished, and if implemented in a Bayesian-MCMC framework, statistically robust estimates of uncertainty on all of these parameters to be made. We illustrate our approach with a worked example of previously published data. More generally, we suggest that applying both the Robertson-Price Identity and the multivariate breeder's equation will facilitate hypothesis testing about natural selection, genetic constraints, and evolutionary responses.
Keyword Bayesian
MCMC
Multivariate breeder's equation
Response to selection
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Letter to editor, brief commentary or brief communication
Collections: Official 2014 Collection
School of Biological Sciences Publications
 
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