Probabilistic coastal hazard lines for risk based coastal assessment

Wainwright, David J., Callaghan, David P., Cowell, Peter, Dougherty, Amy and Woodroffe, Colin D. (2013). Probabilistic coastal hazard lines for risk based coastal assessment. In: Ian L. Turner and Edward D. Couriel, Coasts & Ports 2013 Conference: 21st Australasian Coastal and Ocean Engineering Conference and the 14th Australasian Port and Harbour Conference. Proceedings. Coasts and Ports 2013: 21st Australasian Coastal and Ocean Engineering Conference and the 14th Australasian Port and Harbour Conference, Manly, NSW, Australia, (1-6). 11-13 September, 2013.

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Author Wainwright, David J.
Callaghan, David P.
Cowell, Peter
Dougherty, Amy
Woodroffe, Colin D.
Title of paper Probabilistic coastal hazard lines for risk based coastal assessment
Conference name Coasts and Ports 2013: 21st Australasian Coastal and Ocean Engineering Conference and the 14th Australasian Port and Harbour Conference
Conference location Manly, NSW, Australia
Conference dates 11-13 September, 2013
Proceedings title Coasts & Ports 2013 Conference: 21st Australasian Coastal and Ocean Engineering Conference and the 14th Australasian Port and Harbour Conference. Proceedings
Place of Publication Barton, ACT, Australia
Publisher Engineers Australia
Publication Year 2013
Sub-type Fully published paper
Open Access Status
ISBN 9781922107053
Editor Ian L. Turner
Edward D. Couriel
Start page 1
End page 6
Total pages 6
Collection year 2014
Language eng
Formatted Abstract/Summary
As part of a recent NCCARF funded project “Approaches to Risk Assessment on Australian Coasts”, a modelling framework was developed which integrated geological, engineering and economic approaches for assessing the risk of climate change along the Australian Coast. This paper aims to demonstrate the working of the framework in deriving probabilistic coastal hazard lines. Within the framework, means for combining results from models that focus on the decadal to century time scale (geomorphic), and those that focus on the short term and seasonal time scales (storm bite and recovery) have been developed. This combination is necessary for the derivation of probabilistic hazard lines.

The Narrabeen – Collaroy embayment on the northern beaches of Sydney was chosen as an appropriate study site due to its data rich nature, with directional wave records extending back 20 years, and ongoing repeated beach survey available since the mid 1970’s. The site has been subject to extensive study over recent decades. To demonstrate operation of the framework two models with stochastic capabilities were adapted for use in the study. These are the Shoreface Translation Model (STM), for century scale geomorphic evolution, and the Joint Probability Method – Probabilistic Coastline Recession (JPM-PCR) for shorter term beach erosion and recovery. Both models are introduced and discussed.

When projecting forward to future scenarios involving sea level rise, the framework also enables sea level rise over time to be input as a probabilistic variable. Recent research has also provided some guidance as to how this can be achieved using outputs from the most recent IPCC estimates. Overall, the research efforts have aimed to point a way forward that enables the quantitative assessment of coastal hazard likelihood for use in robust coastal risk assessment. This contrasts with present practice which typically adopts a more qualitative approach to risk assessment.
Keyword Coastal hazard
Probabilistic modelling
Q-Index Code E1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Conference Paper
Collections: School of Civil Engineering Publications
Official 2014 Collection
 
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Created: Sat, 15 Mar 2014, 11:51:08 EST by David Wainwright on behalf of School of Civil Engineering