Using mathematical transmission modelling to investigate drivers of respiratory syncytial virus seasonality in children in the philippines

Paynter, Stuart, Yakob, Laith, Simoes, Eric A. F., Lucero, Marilla G., Tallo, Veronica, Nohynek, Hanna, Ware, Robert S., Weinstein, Philip, Williams, Gail and Sly, Peter D. (2014) Using mathematical transmission modelling to investigate drivers of respiratory syncytial virus seasonality in children in the philippines. PLoS One, 9 2: e90094.1-e90094.11. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0090094


Author Paynter, Stuart
Yakob, Laith
Simoes, Eric A. F.
Lucero, Marilla G.
Tallo, Veronica
Nohynek, Hanna
Ware, Robert S.
Weinstein, Philip
Williams, Gail
Sly, Peter D.
Title Using mathematical transmission modelling to investigate drivers of respiratory syncytial virus seasonality in children in the philippines
Journal name PLoS One   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1932-6203
Publication date 2014-02-27
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1371/journal.pone.0090094
Open Access Status DOI
Volume 9
Issue 2
Start page e90094.1
End page e90094.11
Total pages 11
Place of publication San Francisco, CA, United States
Publisher Public Library of Science
Collection year 2015
Language eng
Abstract We used a mathematical transmission model to estimate when ecological drivers of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) transmissibility would need to act in order to produce the observed seasonality of RSV in the Philippines. We estimated that a seasonal peak in transmissibility would need to occur approximately 51 days prior to the observed peak in RSV cases (range 49 to 67 days). We then compared this estimated seasonal pattern of transmissibility to the seasonal patterns of possible ecological drivers of transmissibility: rainfall, humidity and temperature patterns, nutritional status, and school holidays. The timing of the seasonal patterns of nutritional status and rainfall were both consistent with the estimated seasonal pattern of transmissibility and these are both plausible drivers of the seasonality of RSV in this setting.
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ

 
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Created: Fri, 07 Mar 2014, 12:55:12 EST by Dr Laith Yakob on behalf of School of Public Health