A threshold analysis of dengue transmission in terms of weather variables and imported dengue cases in Australia

Huang, Xiaodong, Clements, Archie C. A., Williams, Gail, Milinovich, Gabriel and Hu, Wenbiao (2013) A threshold analysis of dengue transmission in terms of weather variables and imported dengue cases in Australia. Emerging Microbes & Infections, 2 e87: 1-7. doi:10.1038/emi.2013.85

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Author Huang, Xiaodong
Clements, Archie C. A.
Williams, Gail
Milinovich, Gabriel
Hu, Wenbiao
Title A threshold analysis of dengue transmission in terms of weather variables and imported dengue cases in Australia
Journal name Emerging Microbes & Infections   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 2222-1751
Publication date 2013-12-18
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1038/emi.2013.85
Open Access Status DOI
Volume 2
Issue e87
Start page 1
End page 7
Total pages 7
Place of publication London, United Kingdom
Publisher Nature Publishing Group
Collection year 2014
Language eng
Formatted abstract
Dengue virus (DENV) transmission in Australia is driven by weather factors and imported dengue fever (DF) cases. However, uncertainty remains regarding the threshold effects of high-order interactions among weather factors and imported DF cases and the impact of these factors on autochthonous DF. A time-series regression tree model was used to assess the threshold effects of natural temporal variations of weekly weather factors and weekly imported DF cases in relation to incidence of weekly autochthonous DF from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2009 in Townsville and Cairns, Australia. In Cairns, mean weekly autochthonous DF incidence increased 16.3-fold when the 3-week lagged moving average maximum temperature was <32 °C, the 4-week lagged moving average minimum temperature was ≥24 °C and the sum of imported DF cases in the previous 2 weeks was >0. When the 3-week lagged moving average maximum temperature was ≥32 °C and the other two conditions mentioned above remained the same, mean weekly autochthonous DF incidence only increased 4.6-fold. In Townsville, the mean weekly incidence of autochthonous DF increased 10-fold when 3-week lagged moving average rainfall was ≥27 mm, but it only increased 1.8-fold when rainfall was <27 mm during January to June. Thus, we found different responses of autochthonous DF incidence to weather factors and imported DF cases in Townsville and Cairns. Imported DF cases may also trigger and enhance local outbreaks under favorable climate conditions.
Keyword Aedes aegypti
Autochthonous dengue
Classification and regression tree
Dengue fever
Imported dengue
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Official 2014 Collection
School of Public Health Publications
 
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Created: Tue, 18 Feb 2014, 22:18:22 EST by Dr Gabriel Milinovich on behalf of School of Public Health