Pest species distribution modelling: origins and lessons from history

Sutherst, Robert W. (2014) Pest species distribution modelling: origins and lessons from history. Biological Invasions, 16 2: 239-256. doi:10.1007/s10530-013-0523-y


Author Sutherst, Robert W.
Title Pest species distribution modelling: origins and lessons from history
Journal name Biological Invasions   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1387-3547
1573-1464
Publication date 2014
Year available 2013
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1007/s10530-013-0523-y
Open Access Status
Volume 16
Issue 2
Start page 239
End page 256
Total pages 18
Place of publication Dordrecht, Netherlands
Publisher Springer
Collection year 2014
Language eng
Abstract Pest species distribution modelling was designed to extrapolate risks in the biosecurity sector in order to protect agricultural crops against the spread of both endemic and introduced pest species. The need to identify sources of biological control agents for importation added to this demand. Independently, biogeographers mapped species distributions to interpolate their niche requirements. Recently the threat of climate change caused an explosion in demand for guidance on likely shifts in potential distributions of species. The different technology platforms in the two sectors resulted in divergence in their approaches to mapping actual and potential species distributions under rapidly changing environmental scenarios. Much of the contemporary discussion of species mapping ignores the lessons from the history of pest species distribution modelling. This has major implications for modelling of the non-equilibrium distributions of all species that occur with rapid climate change. The current review is intended to remind researchers of historical findings and their significance for current mapping of all species. I argue that the dream of automating species mapping for multiple species is an illusion. More modest goals and use of other approaches are necessary to protect biodiversity under current and future climates. Pest risk mapping tools have greater prospects of success because they are generic in nature and so able to be used both to interpolate and to extrapolate from field observations of any species based on climatic variables. In addition invasive species are less numerous and usually better understood, while the risk assessments are applied on regional scales in which climate is the dominant variable.
Keyword Biodiversity
Biosecurity
Climate change
Extrapolation
Geographical distribution
Non-equilibrium
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ
Additional Notes Published online: 19 December 2013.

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Official 2014 Collection
School of Biological Sciences Publications
 
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